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2027 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED MAY 27 · 2027

The 2027 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

BASE is the data — twelve years of SuperFlex hit rates, by position and ADP bucket. ADJ is our overlay: 5+ All-22 games per prospect, applied on top of base. COMP is a locked 25/75 blend, weighted toward the tape for an early-cycle class.

Draft against the column that matches how you evaluate. Data-first → BASE. Tape-first → ADJ. Both → COMP.

/ Methodology

How a hit rate actually gets made.

Twelve years of SuperFlex rookie ADP, mapped against twelve years of dynasty production. A tape overlay applied to every active prospect. The two layers blend 50/50 into the headline number on the board.

12yrbase-rate window
n=412comp pool
5+All-22 per
Read the methodology →
Class
Hit threshold

Toggle to recompute tiers against 1+, 2+, or 3+ career hit seasons. ADP order holds inside each tier.

Position

Click any player for the full scouting deep dive→

#
Player
Pos
School
Hive Take
Team
I
Conviction
Tier I · 78%+ hit rate · 2 prospects
Hist. hit rate: 78%+·Vs last wk: →·2 of 2 shown
01
Jeremiah Smith↗
6'3" · 223 lbs
WR
Ohio State
Big Ten
1.01
52%
95%
84%
Cleanest WR prospect since Julio. Locked 1.01 every format — only debate is which QB goes 1.02.
—
02
Kewan Lacy↗
5'11" · 205 lbs
RB
Ole Miss
SEC
1.06
73%
82%
80%
Cleanest RB1 case in the class — workhorse usage, breakaway speed, undersold receiving. De-facto 1.06 based on tape.
—
II
Strong Lean
Tier II · 55–77% hit rate · 12 prospects
Hist. hit rate: 55–77%·Vs last wk: →·12 of 12 shown
01
Arch Manning↗
6'4" · 219 lbs
QB
Texas
SEC
1.02
68%
70%
70%
Name inflates the capital and value; although he was promising down the stretch. Needs to build on the second half of '25.
—
02
Julian Sayin↗
6'1" · 208 lbs
QB
Ohio State
Big Ten
1.03
68%
75%
73%
Best pure passer in the class, but no rushing dimension caps the ceiling. Heisman front runner and early first projection.
—
03
Dante Moore↗
6'3" · 206 lbs
QB
Oregon
Big Ten
1.04
68%
70%
70%
Bo Nix archetype w/ solid tape and the QB tier's top big-play profile. Size + shotgun-only offense = only questions.
—
04
Cam Coleman↗
6'3" · 201 lbs
WR
Texas
SEC
1.05
52%
75%
69%
Tier 2 WR in a loaded class — Metcalf ceiling, Pittman floor. Separation isn't JSmith-level, but the QB upgrade is real.
—
05
Bryant Wesco Jr.↗
6'2" · 185 lbs
WR
Clemson
ACC
1.07
68%
80%
77%
Tee Higgins archetype, cleanest efficiency signal of the Tier 2 WRs. Size + Speed are left. Medicals are priced in.
—
06
Ryan Williams↗
6'0" · 178 lbs
WR
Alabama
SEC
1.08
68%
75%
73%
Buy the '24 true fresh tape, fade the '25 drops. Youngest in the class, plenty of upside for a big bounce back szn.
—
07
Nate Frazier↗
5'10" · 205 lbs
RB
Georgia
SEC
1.09
45%
70%
64%
Kenneth Walker archetype: explosive 3-down speed, 4.3 wheels. Solid receiving usage. Georgia RB pedigree.
—
08
Ryan Wingo↗
6'2" · 214 lbs
WR
Texas
SEC
1.10
68%
75%
73%
6'2/214 alpha X w/ elite YAC and cleaner separation than Coleman. Odunze archetype — how will he produce w/Coleman?
—
09
T.J. Moore↗
6'3" · 200 lbs
WR
Clemson
ACC
1.12
68%
68%
68%
Solid hands and route running, polished possession X. Bateman archetype — speed's the main question mark.
—
10
Ahmad Hardy↗
5'10" · 210 lbs
RB
Missouri
SEC
2.02
40%
60%
55%
Best pure runner in the class on tape, biggest medical question on the board. Chubb archetype — cleanest RB1 bet IF healthy.
—
11
Trey'Dez Green↗
6'7" · 240 lbs
TE
LSU
SEC
2.08
57%
65%
63%
Class TE1 for now — 6'7/240 catch-radius weapon w/ basketball instincts. Frame, blocking, route tree are the limiters.
—
12
Jamari Johnson↗
6'6" · 250 lbs
TE
Oregon
Big Ten
2.12
57%
70%
67%
Most complete TE in the class, higher floor than Green. Produced despite Sadiq's presence. Graded better than Sadiq (PFF).
—
Hive Mind · Founder Access

The rest is for Hive Mind.

Unlock the full 2026 board, 12 years of historical SuperFlex ADP and hit-rate data, and every call we've made on the last two rookie classes. Free for now.

  • The full 2026 board (Tiers IV–V) with base + adjusted + composite scores
  • 12 years of SF ADP and hit rates, filterable by position and ADP range
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  • Class-by-class hit rates and all-time position leaders back to 2014
  • Devy board with 2-yr projections
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2027 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED MAY 27

The 2027 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Every player carries a 25/75 composite of base rate (twelve years of SuperFlex ADP) and adjusted rate (All-22 tape study) — weighted toward the tape for an early-cycle class. The composite is what you draft against.

Year
Threshold
Position
Sort by
Density
14 of 48 shown
I
ConvictionTier I · 78%+ hit rate · 2 prospects
01WR

Jeremiah Smith

Ohio State

Cleanest WR prospect since Julio. Locked 1.01 every format — only debate is which QB goes 1.02.

Base 52%·Adj 95%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
84%Composite
02RB

Kewan Lacy

Ole Miss

Cleanest RB1 case in the class — workhorse usage, breakaway speed, undersold receiving. De-facto 1.06 based on tape.

Base 73%·Adj 82%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
80%Composite
II
Strong LeanTier II · 55–77% hit rate · 12 prospects
01WR

Bryant Wesco Jr.

Clemson

Tee Higgins archetype, cleanest efficiency signal of the Tier 2 WRs. Size + Speed are left. Medicals are priced in.

Base 68%·Adj 80%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
77%Composite
02QB

Julian Sayin

Ohio State

Best pure passer in the class, but no rushing dimension caps the ceiling. Heisman front runner and early first projection.

Base 68%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
73%Composite
03WR

Ryan Williams

Alabama

Buy the '24 true fresh tape, fade the '25 drops. Youngest in the class, plenty of upside for a big bounce back szn.

Base 68%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
73%Composite
04WR

Ryan Wingo

Texas

6'2/214 alpha X w/ elite YAC and cleaner separation than Coleman. Odunze archetype — how will he produce w/Coleman?

Base 68%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
73%Composite
05QB

Arch Manning

Texas

Name inflates the capital and value; although he was promising down the stretch. Needs to build on the second half of '25.

Base 68%·Adj 70%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
70%Composite
06QB

Dante Moore

Oregon

Bo Nix archetype w/ solid tape and the QB tier's top big-play profile. Size + shotgun-only offense = only questions.

Base 68%·Adj 70%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
70%Composite
07WR

Cam Coleman

Texas

Tier 2 WR in a loaded class — Metcalf ceiling, Pittman floor. Separation isn't JSmith-level, but the QB upgrade is real.

Base 52%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
69%Composite
08WR

T.J. Moore

Clemson

Solid hands and route running, polished possession X. Bateman archetype — speed's the main question mark.

Base 68%·Adj 68%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
68%Composite
09TE

Jamari Johnson

Oregon

Most complete TE in the class, higher floor than Green. Produced despite Sadiq's presence. Graded better than Sadiq (PFF).

Base 57%·Adj 70%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
67%Composite
10RB

Nate Frazier

Georgia

Kenneth Walker archetype: explosive 3-down speed, 4.3 wheels. Solid receiving usage. Georgia RB pedigree.

Base 45%·Adj 70%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
64%Composite
11TE

Trey'Dez Green

LSU

Class TE1 for now — 6'7/240 catch-radius weapon w/ basketball instincts. Frame, blocking, route tree are the limiters.

Base 57%·Adj 65%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
63%Composite
12RB

Ahmad Hardy

Missouri

Best pure runner in the class on tape, biggest medical question on the board. Chubb archetype — cleanest RB1 bet IF healthy.

Base 40%·Adj 60%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
55%Composite
Hive Mind · Founder Tier

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Tiers IV–V — dart-throws and lottery tickets, plus our weekly take revisions. We don't paywall the model.

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