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Board/2027 Class/Tier I · 78%+/Jeremiah Smith
Rank01of 48
WRTier I · 78%+ hit rate2027 Class

Jeremiah
Smith

Ohio State · Big Ten

Height
6'3"
Weight
223
40-yd
—
Age
—
RAS
—
Wingspan
—
Hit-Rate Composite · 12yr Model

The tape & the data, plotted against twelve years of comps.

Model confidence★★★★☆
84%Composite hit rate
Base rate (ADP)
12yr · n=21 prospects in window
0%255075100
52%12 of 21 hit
Adjusted (tape)
5 All-22 games · HIVE Tape Desk · Apr 18–24
0%255075100
95%tape overlay
Composite
50 / 50 blend · headline number on the board
0%255075100
84%composite
Comparables window · 2014–2025n=21 · WR · ADP 1.01–1.06Hit (top-24 Y3+)MissSubjectView comp methodology →
12/21

Of the 21 prior wide receivers who entered with a 1.01–1.06 SuperFlex rookie ADP, 12 hit top-24 in 1+ season. Jeremiah Smith's tape places him in the upper half of that pool.

All comparables →
02 · The Scouting Report

The tape read on Smith.

HIVE Editorial · Tape & Scouting DeskFiled editorially

The cleanest WR prospect in a decade. Locked-in 1.01 in every format. The only debate is which QB you take at 1.02.

The cleanest wide receiver prospect we've evaluated in a decade. Smith arrived in Columbus as the #1 receiver in his high school class and immediately played like a top-10 college receiver as an 18-year-old true freshman. The 2025 follow-up didn't regress to the mean — it confirmed the ceiling. 87/1,243/12 on a 14.3 yards per reception with a **3.43 yards-per-route-run mark that ranks second nationally** among every receiver with 200+ routes, and the only name above him does his work against Sun Belt corners. Smith's number is built on Big Ten and CFP-slate snaps against constant bracket coverage.

Everything translates. The size-speed combo is the headline, but the route polish, release nuance, and after-the-catch profile he's developed as a true sophomore are what separate him from previous one-and-done WR prospects. He wins vertically. He wins on in-breakers and out-breakers. He wins on screens with the ball in his hands — 378 YAC and 15 avoided tackles speak to that. And he converts at the catch point: 55% contested-catch rate on 20 contested targets, 82% overall catch rate on a heavy volume share, 2.2% drop rate, and a 149.3 targeted QB rating that turns whichever Ohio State quarterback is on the field into a more efficient version of himself.

The cleanest version of the case: his teammate Carnell Tate went top-five in the 2026 NFL Draft, and Jeremiah Smith is the categorically superior prospect at the same position out of the same offense. He projects as a top-three pick in the 2027 NFL Draft at floor — with a legitimate, position-agnostic argument for going first overall depending on how the 2027 QB class shakes out. None of that changes the dynasty calculus. He is the 1.01 rookie pick next May in every format.

Strengths

  • 3.43 yards per route run ranks #2 nationally on 362 routes — the most predictive efficiency mark in college football
  • Cleanest WR size-speed-release combo since Julio Jones — plus tape, plus production, plus pedigree
  • Operational floor is non-negotiable: 90.8 receiving grade, 2.2% drop rate, 82% catch rate against bracket coverage

Concerns

  • Coverage attention only intensifies as a junior — per-route efficiency may compress from the 3.43 peak
  • Heavy snap and target share dating back to true freshman year creates a wear watch
  • Ohio State QB and scheme variance affects 2026 box score, not the 2027 grade

HIVE Verdict

Composite hit rate84%
Rookie ADP1.01
HIVE rank01 of 48
vs. consensus—
Startup ADP—
7-day Δ—

Archetype

Alpha X · Three-Level Dominator

Pro compJulio Jones

Tier-mate context

Tier I cohort2 of 48 · 78%+
Position rankWR1
Class rank1 of 48
03 · The Comparables

Twelve years, 8 prospects.

Threshold
Filtered · WR · ADP 1.01–1.06 · 2014–2025
Hit
Ja'Marr Chase
2021 · 1.04
Hits5
Hit
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2023 · 1.06
Hits2
Hit
Drake London
2022 · 1.02
Hits2
Hit
Garrett Wilson
2022 · 1.03
Hits2
Miss
Rome Odunze
2024 · 1.06
Hits—
Miss
Treylon Burks
2022 · 1.05
Hits—
Miss
N'Keal Harry
2019 · 1.05
Hits—
Miss
Corey Davis
2017 · 1.03
Hits—
Rank01of 48
  • WR
  • Tier I
  • 78%+ hit rate
  • 2027 class

Jeremiah
Smith

Ohio State·Big Ten

Height6'3"
Weight223
40-yd—
Age—
RAS—
Wingspan—
01 · Hit-Rate Composite · 12yr Model

The tape & the data, plotted against twelve years of comps.

Model confidence
★★★★☆
84%
Composite hit rate
Base rate (ADP)
12yr · n=21 prospects in window
52%
12 of 21 hit
0%255075100
Adjusted (tape)
5 All-22 games · HIVE Tape Desk
95%
tape overlay
0%255075100
Composite
50 / 50 blend · headline number on the board
84%
composite
0%255075100
Hit (top-24 Y3+)MissSubject
Window · WR · ADP 1.01–1.06 · '14–'25View methodology →
12/21

Of the 21 prior wide receivers who entered with a 1.01–1.06 SuperFlex rookie ADP, 12 hit top-24 in 1+ season. Jeremiah Smith's tape places him in the upper half of that pool.

All comparables→
02 · The Scouting Report

The tape read on Smith.

HIVE Editorial · Tape & Scouting Desk · Filed editorially

The cleanest WR prospect in a decade. Locked-in 1.01 in every format. The only debate is which QB you take at 1.02.

The cleanest wide receiver prospect we've evaluated in a decade. Smith arrived in Columbus as the #1 receiver in his high school class and immediately played like a top-10 college receiver as an 18-year-old true freshman. The 2025 follow-up didn't regress to the mean — it confirmed the ceiling. 87/1,243/12 on a 14.3 yards per reception with a **3.43 yards-per-route-run mark that ranks second nationally** among every receiver with 200+ routes, and the only name above him does his work against Sun Belt corners. Smith's number is built on Big Ten and CFP-slate snaps against constant bracket coverage.

Everything translates. The size-speed combo is the headline, but the route polish, release nuance, and after-the-catch profile he's developed as a true sophomore are what separate him from previous one-and-done WR prospects. He wins vertically. He wins on in-breakers and out-breakers. He wins on screens with the ball in his hands — 378 YAC and 15 avoided tackles speak to that. And he converts at the catch point: 55% contested-catch rate on 20 contested targets, 82% overall catch rate on a heavy volume share, 2.2% drop rate, and a 149.3 targeted QB rating that turns whichever Ohio State quarterback is on the field into a more efficient version of himself.

The cleanest version of the case: his teammate Carnell Tate went top-five in the 2026 NFL Draft, and Jeremiah Smith is the categorically superior prospect at the same position out of the same offense. He projects as a top-three pick in the 2027 NFL Draft at floor — with a legitimate, position-agnostic argument for going first overall depending on how the 2027 QB class shakes out. None of that changes the dynasty calculus. He is the 1.01 rookie pick next May in every format.

Strengths
  • 3.43 yards per route run ranks #2 nationally on 362 routes — the most predictive efficiency mark in college football
  • Cleanest WR size-speed-release combo since Julio Jones — plus tape, plus production, plus pedigree
  • Operational floor is non-negotiable: 90.8 receiving grade, 2.2% drop rate, 82% catch rate against bracket coverage
Concerns
  • Coverage attention only intensifies as a junior — per-route efficiency may compress from the 3.43 peak
  • Heavy snap and target share dating back to true freshman year creates a wear watch
  • Ohio State QB and scheme variance affects 2026 box score, not the 2027 grade
HIVE Verdict
Composite hit rate84%
Rookie ADP1.01
HIVE rank01 of 48
vs. consensus—
Startup ADP—
7-day Δ—
Archetype
Alpha X · Three-Level Dominator
Pro compJulio Jones
Tier-mate context
Tier I cohort1 of 2 · 78%+
Position rankWR1
Class rank1 of 48
03 · The Comparables

Twelve years, 8 prospects.

Threshold
Filtered · WR · ADP 1.01–1.06 · 2014–2025
Hit

Ja'Marr Chase

2021·1.04
Hits
5
Hit

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

2023·1.06
Hits
2
Hit

Drake London

2022·1.02
Hits
2
Hit

Garrett Wilson

2022·1.03
Hits
2
Miss

Rome Odunze

2024·1.06
Hits
—
Miss

Treylon Burks

2022·1.05
Hits
—
Miss

N'Keal Harry

2019·1.05
Hits
—
Miss

Corey Davis

2017·1.03
Hits
—
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