ToolsProof-of-ModelMethodology →

Twelve years of SuperFlex rookie ADP — and what actually hits.

Every rookie taken inside the top 48 picks of dynasty SuperFlex drafts since 2014, scored against full-PPR top-12 QB / top-15 RB / top-24 WR / top-12 TE seasons. The matrix below is the entire dataset, untruncated.

01Positional Hit Rate Matrix

Where each position hits — and where it doesn't.

Threshold

View

Round Filter

1.01-1.06
Picks 01–06

68.2%

n = 22

68.2%

72.7%

n = 22

72.7%

52.4%

n = 21

52.4%

100%

n = 1

100%

1.07-1.12
Picks 07–12

38.5%

n = 13

38.5%

45%

n = 20

45%

67.9%

n = 28

67.9%

80%

n = 5

80%

2.01-2.06
Picks 13–18

28.6%

n = 7

28.6%

40%

n = 20

40%

37.1%

n = 35

37.1%

75%

n = 4

75%

2.07-2.12
Picks 19–24

16.7%

n = 6

16.7%

n = 24

16.7%

13.8%

n = 29

13.8%

57.1%

n = 7

57.1%

3rd Round
Picks 25–36

25%

n = 12

25%

20%

n = 50

20%

20.4%

n = 54

20.4%

37.5%

n = 16

37.5%

4th Round
Picks 37–48

6.7%

n = 15

6.7%

n = 45

6.7%

10.4%

n = 48

10.4%

20.8%

n = 24

20.8%

Hit Rate Scale

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Position Color (Bar View)

QBRBWRTE

Reading the cellsHit rate · sample size on hover · small-n flag below 8

02Best Positions to Target by ADP

The cheatsheet. Plant the flag, don't hedge.

Editorial voice · Updated through 2025

ADP Range	Top Target	Secondary	Avoid	Notes
1.01-1.06Picks 01–06	RB	QB	WR / TE	RB still king (50% 3+). QB has caught up (38%). WR/TE small or weak — skip unless tier-1.
1.07-1.12Picks 07–12	WR	RB	QB / TE	WR is the clear winner (53% 3+). Don't reach for 2nd-tier RBs or QBs here.
2.01-2.06Picks 13–18	WR / TE	RB	QB	WR (24% 3+) leads; TE small sample but strong. RB hit rate worse than late-1st.
2.07-2.12Picks 19–24	TE	RB	WR / QB	Bust range. TE has highest 3+ (20%) on small sample. WR catastrophic (4%).
3rd RoundPicks 25–36	TE	WR	QB / RB	TE (30% 3+) dominates. WR (15% 3+) viable. QB/RB shot-in-the-dark territory.
4th RoundPicks 37–48	TE	WR	QB / RB	TE (21% 1+) holds value. Everything else is noise — last-pick lottery.

03Most Hit Seasons since 2014

The raw count leaders — sustained dynasty value.

Sorted by total hit seasons · 4 position-grouped sub-tables, not one monolithic list

10 listed

#	Player	Hits	Class
1	Patrick MahomesADP 1.02	8	2017
2	Dak PrescottADP 4.01	7	2016
3	Josh AllenADP 2.05	7	2018
4	Jared GoffADP 1.02	6	2016
5	Justin HerbertADP 1.10	5	2020
6	Jalen HurtsADP 2.11	5	2020
7	Lamar JacksonADP 1.07	4	2018
8	Kyler MurrayADP 1.01	4	2019
9	Deshaun WatsonADP 1.06	3	2017
10	Baker MayfieldADP 1.02	3	2018

Leader · Patrick Mahomes8 hits

10 listed

#	Player	Hits	Class
1	Derrick HenryADP 1.08	8	2016
2	Alvin KamaraADP 1.11	7	2017
3	Ezekiel ElliottADP 1.01	6	2016
4	Christian McCaffreyADP 1.05	6	2017
5	Joe MixonADP 1.07	6	2017
6	Saquon BarkleyADP 1.01	6	2018
7	Todd GurleyADP 1.03	5	2015
8	Aaron JonesADP 4.02	5	2017
9	Josh JacobsADP 1.02	5	2019
10	Melvin GordonADP 1.05	4	2015

Leader · Derrick Henry8 hits

10 listed

#	Player	Hits	Class
1	Mike EvansADP 1.02	10	2014
2	Davante AdamsADP 1.12	9	2014
3	Stefon DiggsADP 3.12	8	2015
4	Amari CooperADP 1.02	7	2015
5	Brandin CooksADP 1.04	6	2014
6	DJ MooreADP 1.11	6	2018
7	A.J. BrownADP 1.08	6	2019
8	CeeDee LambADP 1.09	6	2020
9	Jarvis LandryADP 4.02	5	2014
10	Tyler LockettADP 3.05	5	2015

Leader · Mike Evans10 hits

10 listed

#	Player	Hits	Class
1	Hunter HenryADP 3.01	5	2016
2	Mark AndrewsADP 3.11	5	2018
3	David NjokuADP 2.04	4	2017
4	Dallas GoedertADP 3.03	4	2018
5	Evan EngramADP 2.05	3	2017
6	Mike GesickiADP 2.09	3	2018
7	TJ HockensonADP 1.11	3	2019
8	Trey McBrideADP 2.10	3	2022
9	Darren WallerADP 4.05	2	2015
10	Austin HooperADP 3.08	2	2016

Leader · Hunter Henry5 hits

04Hit Efficiency Leaderboard

Hits ÷ seasons of opportunity. Who actually delivers when called.

Hit Rate (career) · Min sample to qualifyMin sample · ≥3 hit seasons

≥3 hits to qualify

#	Player	H/S	Rate	Class
1	Patrick MahomesADP 1.02	8/9	88.9%	2017
2	Josh AllenADP 2.05	7/8	87.5%	2018
3	Justin HerbertADP 1.10	5/6	83.3%	2020
4	Jalen HurtsADP 2.11	5/6	83.3%	2020
5	Dak PrescottADP 4.01	7/10	70.0%	2016
6	Jared GoffADP 1.02	6/10	60.0%	2016
7	Kyler MurrayADP 1.01	4/7	57.1%	2019
8	Lamar JacksonADP 1.07	4/8	50.0%	2018
9	Joe BurrowADP 1.01	3/6	50.0%	2020
10	Baker MayfieldADP 1.02	3/8	37.5%	2018

Leader · Patrick Mahomes89%

≥3 hits to qualify

#	Player	H/S	Rate	Class
1	Bijan RobinsonADP 1.01	3/3	100%	2023
2	Jahmyr GibbsADP 1.05	3/3	100%	2023
3	Derrick HenryADP 1.08	8/10	80.0%	2016
4	Alvin KamaraADP 1.11	7/9	77.8%	2017
5	Saquon BarkleyADP 1.01	6/8	75.0%	2018
6	James CookADP 1.12	3/4	75.0%	2022
7	Kyren WilliamsADP 4.05	3/4	75.0%	2022
8	Josh JacobsADP 1.02	5/7	71.4%	2019
9	Christian McCaffreyADP 1.05	6/9	66.7%	2017
10	Joe MixonADP 1.07	6/9	66.7%	2017

Leader · Bijan Robinson100%

≥3 hits to qualify

#	Player	H/S	Rate	Class
1	CeeDee LambADP 1.09	6/6	100%	2020
2	Ja'Marr ChaseADP 1.04	5/5	100%	2021
3	Amon-Ra St. BrownADP 2.08	5/5	100%	2021
4	A.J. BrownADP 1.08	6/7	85.7%	2019
5	Mike EvansADP 1.02	10/12	83.3%	2014
6	Justin JeffersonADP 1.11	5/6	83.3%	2020
7	Davante AdamsADP 1.12	9/12	75.0%	2014
8	DJ MooreADP 1.11	6/8	75.0%	2018
9	Chris OlaveADP 1.07	3/4	75.0%	2022
10	Stefon DiggsADP 3.12	8/11	72.7%	2015

Leader · CeeDee Lamb100%

≥3 hits to qualify

#	Player	H/S	Rate	Class
1	Trey McBrideADP 2.10	3/4	75.0%	2022
2	Mark AndrewsADP 3.11	5/8	62.5%	2018
3	Hunter HenryADP 3.01	5/10	50.0%	2016
4	Dallas GoedertADP 3.03	4/8	50.0%	2018
5	David NjokuADP 2.04	4/9	44.4%	2017
6	TJ HockensonADP 1.11	3/7	42.9%	2019
7	Mike GesickiADP 2.09	3/8	37.5%	2018
8	Evan EngramADP 2.05	3/9	33.3%	2017

Leader · Trey McBride75%

05Class Strength Over Time

Twelve years of class quality, by round.

Threshold

Round

50%38%25%13%0%

benchmark · 30%

38%

'14

29%

'15

25%

'16

42%

'17

35%

'18

33%

'19

33%

'20

29%

'21

27%

'22

25%

'23

19%

'24

13%

'25

Hit rateClass peakStill cookingEvery class on record has at least one 1+ hit somewhere in the top 48.

2017 tops the broadest cut at 42% — Mahomes / McCaffrey / Kamara / Mixon all from one class. 2025 reads as floor only — one NFL season tells you nothing about a 5-year career window.