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The tape & the data.

HIVE

HIVE Fantasy is a dynasty fantasy football brand built on film-informed scouting and proprietary analytical work. We plant flags before consensus catches up.

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The Hive Mind · Weekly

One email a week. Sunday-night ADP shifts before Twitter and every HIVE Take — free for the first 1,000 founder members.

© 2026 HIVE Fantasy · All rights reservedhivesportsapp@gmail.comUpdated weekly · v1.0

2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26 · 2026

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

BASE is the data — twelve years of SuperFlex hit rates, by position and ADP bucket. ADJ is our overlay: 5+ All-22 games per prospect, applied on top of base. COMP is a locked 50/50 blend.

Draft against the column that matches how you evaluate. Data-first → BASE. Tape-first → ADJ. Both → COMP.

Class size: 48
Tier I players: 4
/ Methodology

How a hit rate actually gets made.

Twelve years of SuperFlex rookie ADP, mapped against twelve years of dynasty production. A tape overlay applied to every active prospect. The two layers blend 50/50 into the headline number on the board.

12yrbase-rate window
n=412comp pool
5+All-22 per
Read the methodology →
Class
Hit threshold

Toggle to recompute tiers against 1+, 2+, or 3+ career hit seasons. ADP order holds inside each tier.

Position

Click any player for the full scouting deep dive→

#
Player
Pos
School
Hive Take
Team
I
Conviction
Tier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects
Hist. hit rate: 78%+·Vs last wk: →·4 of 4 shown
01
Jeremiyah Love↗
6'0" · 212 lbs
RB
Notre Dame
Independent
1.01
73%
95%
84%
Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.
Arizona Cardinals
02
Fernando Mendoza↗
6'5" · 236 lbs
QB
Indiana
Big Ten
1.03
68%
88%
78%
Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.
Las Vegas Raiders
03
Kenyon Sadiq↗
6'3" · 241 lbs
TE
Oregon
Big Ten
1.07
80%
85%
83%
Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.
New York Jets
04
Eli Stowers↗
6'4" · 239 lbs
TE
Vanderbilt
SEC
1.11
80%
80%
80%
Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.
Philadelphia Eagles
II
Strong Lean
Tier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects
Hist. hit rate: 55–77%·Vs last wk: →·7 of 7 shown
01
Carnell Tate↗
6'2" · 192 lbs
WR
Ohio State
Big Ten
1.02
52%
80%
66%
Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.
Tennessee Titans
02
Jordyn Tyson↗
6'2" · 203 lbs
WR
Arizona State
Big 12
1.04
52%
80%
66%
Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.
New Orleans Saints
03
Makai Lemon↗
5'11" · 192 lbs
WR
USC
Big Ten
1.05
52%
75%
64%
Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…
Philadelphia Eagles
04
Jadarian Price↗
5'11" · 203 lbs
RB
Notre Dame
Independent
1.06
73%
80%
77%
Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).
Seattle Seahawks
05
KC Concepcion↗
5'11" · 190 lbs
WR
Texas A&M
SEC
1.08
68%
75%
72%
Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.
Cleveland Browns
06
Omar Cooper↗
6'0" · 199 lbs
WR
Indiana
Big Ten
1.09
68%
70%
69%
Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.
New York Jets
07
Denzel Boston↗
6'4" · 209 lbs
WR
Washington
Big Ten
1.12
68%
50%
59%
Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.
Cleveland Browns
Hive Mind · Founder Access

The rest is for Hive Mind.

Unlock the full 2026 board, 12 years of historical SuperFlex ADP and hit-rate data, and every call we've made on the last two rookie classes. Free for now.

  • The full 2026 board (Tiers IV–V) with base + adjusted + composite scores
  • 12 years of SF ADP and hit rates, filterable by position and ADP range
  • Last two classes graded across all three model layers
  • Class-by-class hit rates and all-time position leaders back to 2014
  • Devy board with 2-yr projections
383 of 1,000 founder spots claimed
2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Every player carries a 50/50 composite of base rate (twelve years of SuperFlex ADP) and adjusted rate (All-22 tape study). The composite is what you draft against.

Year
Threshold
Position
Sort by
Density
11 of 48 shown
I
ConvictionTier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects
01RB

Jeremiyah Love

Notre Dame

ARI

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Base 73%·Adj 95%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
84%Composite
02TE

Kenyon Sadiq

Oregon

NYJ

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Base 80%·Adj 85%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
83%Composite
03TE

Eli Stowers

Vanderbilt

PHI

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Base 80%·Adj 80%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
80%Composite
04QB

Fernando Mendoza

Indiana

LV

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Base 68%·Adj 88%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
78%Composite
II
Strong LeanTier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects
01RB

Jadarian Price

Notre Dame

SEA

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

Base 73%·Adj 80%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
77%Composite
02WR

KC Concepcion

Texas A&M

CLE

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Base 68%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
72%Composite
03WR

Omar Cooper

Indiana

NYJ

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Base 68%·Adj 70%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
69%Composite
04WR

Carnell Tate

Ohio State

TEN

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Base 52%·Adj 80%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
66%Composite
05WR

Jordyn Tyson

Arizona State

NO

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Base 52%·Adj 80%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
66%Composite
06WR

Makai Lemon

USC

PHI

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Base 52%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
64%Composite
07WR

Denzel Boston

Washington

CLE

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

Base 68%·Adj 50%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
59%Composite
Hive Mind · Founder Tier

The rest of the board, free.

Tiers IV–V — dart-throws and lottery tickets, plus our weekly take revisions. We don't paywall the model.

383/1000 founder spots claimed

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