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Board/2026 Class/Tier I · 78%+/Fernando Mendoza
Rank04of 48
QBTier I · 78%+ hit rate2026 Class

Fernando
Mendoza

Indiana · Big Ten

Height
6'5"
Weight
236
40-yd
—
Age
—
RAS
—
Wingspan
—
Hit-Rate Composite · 12yr Model

The tape & the data, plotted against twelve years of comps.

Model confidence★★★★☆
78%Composite hit rate
Base rate (ADP)
12yr · n=22 prospects in window
0%255075100
68%15 of 22 hit
Adjusted (tape)
5 All-22 games · HIVE Tape Desk · Apr 18–24
0%255075100
88%tape overlay
Composite
50 / 50 blend · headline number on the board
0%255075100
78%composite
Comparables window · 2014–2025n=22 · QB · ADP 1.01–1.06Hit (top-24 Y3+)MissSubjectView comp methodology →
15/22

Of the 22 prior quarterbacks who entered with a 1.01–1.06 SuperFlex rookie ADP, 15 hit top-24 in 1+ season. Fernando Mendoza's tape places him in the upper half of that pool.

All comparables →
02 · The Scouting Report

The tape read on Mendoza.

HIVE Editorial · Tape & Scouting DeskFiled editorially

QB1 of the class. Above-average starter ceiling.

QB1 of the class by a clear margin and the only prospect with a real franchise-starter projection. Prototype frame (6'5", 236) with a Matt Ryan / Jared Goff-style profile — above-average arm, elite processor, face-of-franchise makeup. Meteoric rise from unheralded recruit to Heisman / Davey O'Brien winner / national champion in a single year, as responsible as Cignetti for the Indiana turnaround. 41 TD / 6 INT vs. a loaded '25 slate (Miami CFP title, Oregon x2, Bama, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa) with a red-zone profile that's borderline unreal — 39 TD / 0 INT inside the 20 since '24. Arm is good-not-great with enough juice for every NFL throw, strong ball placement, and late-blooming rushing traits (276 / 7 TDs in '25) that add functional escapability. Limits are real: clear step below the Caleb / Jayden / Maye arm-talent tier, RPO- and cast-dependent efficiency, and heavy-footed pocket athleticism that invites extra hits. Growth-curve prospect — don't expect Day 1 stardom.

Strengths

  • Elite processor — fast progressions, clean coverage reads
  • Big-stage producer: 41 TD / 6 INT vs. a loaded '25 slate
  • Red-zone wonder — 39 TD / 0 INT inside the 20 since '24
  • Face-of-franchise makeup; as responsible as Cignetti for the IU turnaround

Concerns

  • Clear step below the Caleb / Jayden / Maye arm-talent tier
  • RPO- and cast-dependent tape inflates efficiency
  • Heavy-footed pocket athlete — can't reset launch point
  • A-gap pressure speeds him up into misfires

HIVE Verdict

Composite hit rate78%
Rookie ADP1.03
HIVE rank04 of 48
vs. consensus—
Startup ADP—
7-day Δ—

Archetype

Pocket Passer · Rhythm Operator

Pro compMatt Ryan / Jared Goff

Tier-mate context

Tier I cohort4 of 48 · 78%+
Position rankQB1
Class rank4 of 48
03 · The Comparables

Twelve years, 8 prospects.

Threshold
Filtered · QB · ADP 1.01–1.06 · 2014–2025
Hit
Trevor Lawrence
2021 · — · 1.01
Y3 finish—
Hits2
Hit
Caleb Williams
2024 · — · 1.01
Y3 finish—
Hits1
Hit
Jayden Daniels
2024 · — · 1.03
Y3 finish—
Hits1
Hit
Drake Maye
2024 · — · 1.05
Y3 finish—
Hits1
Hit
CJ Stroud
2023 · — · 1.04
Y3 finish—
Hits1
Miss
Anthony Richardson
2023 · — · 1.02
Y3 finish—
Hits—
Miss
Bryce Young
2023 · — · 1.03
Y3 finish—
Hits—
Miss
Trey Lance
2021 · — · 1.02
Y3 finish—
Hits—
Rank04of 48
  • QB
  • Tier I
  • 78%+ hit rate
  • 2026 class

Fernando
Mendoza

Indiana·Big Ten

Height6'5"
Weight236
40-yd—
Age—
RAS—
Wingspan—
01 · Hit-Rate Composite · 12yr Model

The tape & the data, plotted against twelve years of comps.

Model confidence
★★★★☆
78%
Composite hit rate
Base rate (ADP)
12yr · n=22 prospects in window
68%
15 of 22 hit
0%255075100
Adjusted (tape)
5 All-22 games · HIVE Tape Desk
88%
tape overlay
0%255075100
Composite
50 / 50 blend · headline number on the board
78%
composite
0%255075100
Hit (top-24 Y3+)MissSubject
Window · QB · ADP 1.01–1.06 · '14–'25View methodology →
15/22

Of the 22 prior quarterbacks who entered with a 1.01–1.06 SuperFlex rookie ADP, 15 hit top-24 in 1+ season. Fernando Mendoza's tape places him in the upper half of that pool.

All comparables→
02 · The Scouting Report

The tape read on Mendoza.

HIVE Editorial · Tape & Scouting Desk · Filed editorially

QB1 of the class. Above-average starter ceiling.

QB1 of the class by a clear margin and the only prospect with a real franchise-starter projection. Prototype frame (6'5", 236) with a Matt Ryan / Jared Goff-style profile — above-average arm, elite processor, face-of-franchise makeup. Meteoric rise from unheralded recruit to Heisman / Davey O'Brien winner / national champion in a single year, as responsible as Cignetti for the Indiana turnaround. 41 TD / 6 INT vs. a loaded '25 slate (Miami CFP title, Oregon x2, Bama, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa) with a red-zone profile that's borderline unreal — 39 TD / 0 INT inside the 20 since '24. Arm is good-not-great with enough juice for every NFL throw, strong ball placement, and late-blooming rushing traits (276 / 7 TDs in '25) that add functional escapability. Limits are real: clear step below the Caleb / Jayden / Maye arm-talent tier, RPO- and cast-dependent efficiency, and heavy-footed pocket athleticism that invites extra hits. Growth-curve prospect — don't expect Day 1 stardom.

Strengths
  • Elite processor — fast progressions, clean coverage reads
  • Big-stage producer: 41 TD / 6 INT vs. a loaded '25 slate
  • Red-zone wonder — 39 TD / 0 INT inside the 20 since '24
  • Face-of-franchise makeup; as responsible as Cignetti for the IU turnaround
Concerns
  • Clear step below the Caleb / Jayden / Maye arm-talent tier
  • RPO- and cast-dependent tape inflates efficiency
  • Heavy-footed pocket athlete — can't reset launch point
  • A-gap pressure speeds him up into misfires
HIVE Verdict
Composite hit rate78%
Rookie ADP1.03
HIVE rank04 of 48
vs. consensus—
Startup ADP—
7-day Δ—
Archetype
Pocket Passer · Rhythm Operator
Pro compMatt Ryan / Jared Goff
Tier-mate context
Tier I cohort2 of 4 · 78%+
Position rankQB1
Class rank4 of 48
03 · The Comparables

Twelve years, 8 prospects.

Threshold
Filtered · QB · ADP 1.01–1.06 · 2014–2025
Hit

Trevor Lawrence

2021·—·1.01
Y3 finish
—
Hits
2
Hit

Caleb Williams

2024·—·1.01
Y3 finish
—
Hits
1
Hit

Jayden Daniels

2024·—·1.03
Y3 finish
—
Hits
1
Hit

Drake Maye

2024·—·1.05
Y3 finish
—
Hits
1
Hit

CJ Stroud

2023·—·1.04
Y3 finish
—
Hits
1
Miss

Anthony Richardson

2023·—·1.02
Y3 finish
—
Hits
—
Miss

Bryce Young

2023·—·1.03
Y3 finish
—
Hits
—
Miss

Trey Lance

2021·—·1.02
Y3 finish
—
Hits
—
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