2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26 · 2026

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

BASE is the data — twelve years of SuperFlex hit rates, by position and ADP bucket. ADJ is our overlay: 5+ All-22 games per prospect, applied on top of base. COMP is a locked 50/50 blend.

Draft against the column that matches how you evaluate. Data-first → BASE. Tape-first → ADJ. Both → COMP.

Class size: 48

Tier I players: 4

/ Methodology

How a hit rate actually gets made.

Twelve years of SuperFlex rookie ADP, mapped against twelve years of dynasty production. A tape overlay applied to every active prospect. The two layers blend 50/50 into the headline number on the board.

12yrbase-rate window

n=412comp pool

5+All-22 per

Read the methodology →

Class

Hit threshold

Toggle to recompute tiers against 1+, 2+, or 3+ career hit seasons. ADP order holds inside each tier.

Click any player for the full scouting deep dive→

Player

Pos

School

Hive Take

Team

Conviction

Tier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 78%+Vs last wk: →4 of 4 shown

Jeremiyah Love

6'0" · 212 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.01

73%

95%

84%

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Fernando Mendoza

6'5" · 236 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.03

68%

88%

78%

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Kenyon Sadiq

6'3" · 241 lbs

Oregon

Big Ten

1.07

80%

85%

83%

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Eli Stowers

6'4" · 239 lbs

Vanderbilt

SEC

1.11

80%

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Strong Lean

Tier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 55–77%Vs last wk: →7 of 7 shown

Carnell Tate

6'2" · 192 lbs

Ohio State

Big Ten

1.02

52%

80%

66%

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Jordyn Tyson

6'2" · 203 lbs

Arizona State

Big 12

1.04

52%

80%

66%

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Makai Lemon

5'11" · 192 lbs

USC

Big Ten

1.05

52%

75%

64%

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Jadarian Price

5'11" · 203 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.06

73%

80%

77%

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

KC Concepcion

5'11" · 190 lbs

Texas A&M

SEC

1.08

68%

75%

72%

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Omar Cooper

6'0" · 199 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.09

68%

70%

69%

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Denzel Boston

6'4" · 209 lbs

Washington

Big Ten

1.12

68%

50%

59%

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

Hive Mind · Founder Access

The rest is for Hive Mind.

Unlock the full 2026 board, 12 years of historical SuperFlex ADP and hit-rate data, and every call we've made on the last two rookie classes. Free for now.

The full 2026 board (Tiers IV–V) with base + adjusted + composite scores
12 years of SF ADP and hit rates, filterable by position and ADP range
Last two classes graded across all three model layers
Class-by-class hit rates and all-time position leaders back to 2014
Devy board with 2-yr projections

387 of 1,000 founder spots claimed

2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Every player carries a 50/50 composite of base rate (twelve years of SuperFlex ADP) and adjusted rate (All-22 tape study). The composite is what you draft against.

Sort by

Density

11 of 48 shown

ConvictionTier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects

01RB

Jeremiyah Love

Notre Dame

ARI

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Base 73%·Adj 95%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

84%Composite

02TE

Kenyon Sadiq

Oregon

NYJ

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Base 80%·Adj 85%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

83%Composite

03TE

Eli Stowers

Vanderbilt

PHI

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Base 80%·Adj 80%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

80%Composite

04QB

Fernando Mendoza

Indiana

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Base 68%·Adj 88%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

78%Composite

Strong LeanTier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects

01RB

Jadarian Price

Notre Dame

SEA

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

Base 73%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

77%Composite

02WR

KC Concepcion

Texas A&M

CLE

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Base 68%·Adj 75%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

72%Composite

03WR

Omar Cooper

Indiana

NYJ

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Base 68%·Adj 70%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

69%Composite

04WR

Carnell Tate

Ohio State

TEN

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Base 52%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

66%Composite

05WR

Jordyn Tyson

Arizona State

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Base 52%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

66%Composite

06WR

Makai Lemon

USC

PHI

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Base 52%·Adj 75%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

64%Composite

07WR

Denzel Boston

Washington

CLE

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

Base 68%·Adj 50%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

59%Composite

Hive Mind · Founder Tier

The rest of the board, free.

Tiers IV–V — dart-throws and lottery tickets, plus our weekly take revisions. We don't paywall the model.

387/1000 founder spots claimed

Email only · No card

2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26 · 2026

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Class size: 48

Tier I players: 4

/ Methodology

How a hit rate actually gets made.

12yrbase-rate window

n=412comp pool

5+All-22 per

Read the methodology →

Class

Hit threshold

Toggle to recompute tiers against 1+, 2+, or 3+ career hit seasons. ADP order holds inside each tier.

Click any player for the full scouting deep dive→

Player

Pos

School

Hive Take

Team

Conviction

Tier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 78%+Vs last wk: →4 of 4 shown

Jeremiyah Love

6'0" · 212 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.01

73%

95%

84%

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Fernando Mendoza

6'5" · 236 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.03

68%

88%

78%

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Kenyon Sadiq

6'3" · 241 lbs

Oregon

Big Ten

1.07

80%

85%

83%

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Eli Stowers

6'4" · 239 lbs

Vanderbilt

SEC

1.11

80%

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Strong Lean

Tier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 55–77%Vs last wk: →7 of 7 shown

Carnell Tate

6'2" · 192 lbs

Ohio State

Big Ten

1.02

52%

80%

66%

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Jordyn Tyson

6'2" · 203 lbs

Arizona State

Big 12

1.04

52%

80%

66%

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Makai Lemon

5'11" · 192 lbs

USC

Big Ten

1.05

52%

75%

64%

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Jadarian Price

5'11" · 203 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.06

73%

80%

77%

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

KC Concepcion

5'11" · 190 lbs

Texas A&M

SEC

1.08

68%

75%

72%

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Omar Cooper

6'0" · 199 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.09

68%

70%

69%

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Denzel Boston

6'4" · 209 lbs

Washington

Big Ten

1.12

68%

50%

59%

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

Hive Mind · Founder Access

The rest is for Hive Mind.

Unlock the full 2026 board, 12 years of historical SuperFlex ADP and hit-rate data, and every call we've made on the last two rookie classes. Free for now.

The full 2026 board (Tiers IV–V) with base + adjusted + composite scores
12 years of SF ADP and hit rates, filterable by position and ADP range
Last two classes graded across all three model layers
Class-by-class hit rates and all-time position leaders back to 2014
Devy board with 2-yr projections

387 of 1,000 founder spots claimed

2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Every player carries a 50/50 composite of base rate (twelve years of SuperFlex ADP) and adjusted rate (All-22 tape study). The composite is what you draft against.