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The tape & the data.

HIVE

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The Hive Mind · Weekly

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© 2026 HIVE Fantasy · All rights reservedhivesportsapp@gmail.comUpdated weekly · v1.0
Board/2027 Class/Tier I · 78%+/Jadan Baugh
Rank02of 48
RBTier I · 78%+ hit rate2027 Class

Jadan
Baugh

Florida · SEC

Height
6'1"
Weight
225
40-yd
—
Age
—
RAS
—
Wingspan
—
Hit-Rate Composite · 12yr Model

The tape & the data, plotted against twelve years of comps.

Model confidence★★★★☆
82%Composite hit rate
Base rate (ADP)
12yr · n=22 prospects in window
0%255075100
73%17 of 22 hit
Adjusted (tape)
5 All-22 games · HIVE Tape Desk · Apr 18–24
0%255075100
85%tape overlay
Composite
50 / 50 blend · headline number on the board
0%255075100
82%composite
Comparables window · 2014–2025n=22 · RB · ADP 1.01–1.06Hit (top-15 Y3+)MissSubjectView comp methodology →
17/22

Of the 22 prior running backs who entered with a 1.01–1.06 SuperFlex rookie ADP, 17 hit top-15 in 1+ season. Jadan Baugh's tape places him in the upper half of that pool.

All comparables →
03 · The Comparables

Twelve years, 8 prospects.

Threshold
Filtered · RB · ADP 1.01–1.06 · 2014–2025
Hit
Bijan Robinson
2023 · 1.01
Hits3
Hit
Jahmyr Gibbs
2023 · 1.05
Hits3
Hit
Najee Harris
2021 · 1.06
Hits2
Hit
Ashton Jeanty
2025 · 1.01
Hits1
Hit
Breece Hall
2022 · 1.01
Hits1
Hit
Saquon Barkley
2018 · 1.01
Hits6
Miss
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2020 · 1.02
Hits—
Miss
JK Dobbins
2020 · 1.05
Hits—
02 · The Scouting Report

The tape read on Baugh.

HIVE Editorial · Tape & Scouting DeskFiled editorially

Florida's complete three-down workhorse — power, contact balance, real receiving, solid pass-pro. Joe Mixon archetype with goal-line authority and a PPR floor. The athletic ceiling is capped; the complete skill set is the floor.

The most complete three-down profile in the second wave of the 2027 RB cluster. Baugh is Florida's workhorse — a bigger-framed back (6'1"/231) with power, elite contact balance (9 on the trait scale), a genuine receiving floor (Receiving 7), and solid pass protection (Pass Pro 7). The combination of size, contact balance, and three-down skills is rare in the cluster, and it's the cleanest NFL three-down translation outside of Hardy.

The trait profile maps to Joe Mixon — a bigger-framed three-down workhorse with goal-line authority, a real receiving dimension, and the kind of complete skill set that anchors a featured NFL backfield role. The estimated 4.50 speed is good-not-elite, and the breakaway profile is capped (Speed 5), which holds the explosive ceiling below the home-run hitters in the cluster. But the complete skill set is the floor: a back who handles all three downs, catches passes, protects the quarterback, and finishes at the goal line.

The dynasty calc: a strong 2.11 with a clean three-down floor and a capped explosive ceiling. The realistic outcome is a Mixon-style featured back whose PPR value is supported by the receiving floor even when the explosive runs don't come.

Strengths

  • Most complete three-down profile in the cluster's second wave — power, elite contact balance (9), real receiving (7), solid pass-pro (7)
  • Joe Mixon archetype — bigger-framed (6'1"/231) workhorse with goal-line authority and a genuine receiving floor
  • Clean NFL three-down translation — the kind of complete skill set that anchors a featured backfield role

Concerns

  • Estimated 4.50 speed is good-not-elite — the breakaway profile is capped (Speed 5), holding the explosive ceiling below the home-run hitters
  • The capped athletic profile typically lands Day 2, not Day 1, in the NFL Draft
  • Bigger-frame workhorse usage carries the standard wear/durability watch

HIVE Verdict

Composite hit rate82%
Rookie ADP1.02
HIVE rank02 of 48
vs. consensus—
Startup ADP—
7-day Δ—

Archetype

Complete Three-Down Workhorse · Power + Receiving

Pro compJoe Mixon

Tier-mate context

Tier I cohort2 of 48 · 78%+
Position rankRB1
Class rank2 of 48
Rank02of 48
  • RB
  • Tier I
  • 78%+ hit rate
  • 2027 class

Jadan
Baugh

Florida·SEC

Height6'1"
Weight225
40-yd—
Age—
RAS—
Wingspan—
01 · Hit-Rate Composite · 12yr Model

The tape & the data, plotted against twelve years of comps.

Model confidence
★★★★☆
82%
Composite hit rate
Base rate (ADP)
12yr · n=22 prospects in window
73%
17 of 22 hit
0%255075100
Adjusted (tape)
5 All-22 games · HIVE Tape Desk
85%
tape overlay
0%255075100
Composite
50 / 50 blend · headline number on the board
82%
composite
0%255075100
Hit (top-15 Y3+)MissSubject
Window · RB · ADP 1.01–1.06 · '14–'25View methodology →
17/22

Of the 22 prior running backs who entered with a 1.01–1.06 SuperFlex rookie ADP, 17 hit top-15 in 1+ season. Jadan Baugh's tape places him in the upper half of that pool.

All comparables→
02 · The Scouting Report

The tape read on Baugh.

HIVE Editorial · Tape & Scouting Desk · Filed editorially

Florida's complete three-down workhorse — power, contact balance, real receiving, solid pass-pro. Joe Mixon archetype with goal-line authority and a PPR floor. The athletic ceiling is capped; the complete skill set is the floor.

The most complete three-down profile in the second wave of the 2027 RB cluster. Baugh is Florida's workhorse — a bigger-framed back (6'1"/231) with power, elite contact balance (9 on the trait scale), a genuine receiving floor (Receiving 7), and solid pass protection (Pass Pro 7). The combination of size, contact balance, and three-down skills is rare in the cluster, and it's the cleanest NFL three-down translation outside of Hardy.

The trait profile maps to Joe Mixon — a bigger-framed three-down workhorse with goal-line authority, a real receiving dimension, and the kind of complete skill set that anchors a featured NFL backfield role. The estimated 4.50 speed is good-not-elite, and the breakaway profile is capped (Speed 5), which holds the explosive ceiling below the home-run hitters in the cluster. But the complete skill set is the floor: a back who handles all three downs, catches passes, protects the quarterback, and finishes at the goal line.

The dynasty calc: a strong 2.11 with a clean three-down floor and a capped explosive ceiling. The realistic outcome is a Mixon-style featured back whose PPR value is supported by the receiving floor even when the explosive runs don't come.

Strengths
  • Most complete three-down profile in the cluster's second wave — power, elite contact balance (9), real receiving (7), solid pass-pro (7)
  • Joe Mixon archetype — bigger-framed (6'1"/231) workhorse with goal-line authority and a genuine receiving floor
  • Clean NFL three-down translation — the kind of complete skill set that anchors a featured backfield role
Concerns
  • Estimated 4.50 speed is good-not-elite — the breakaway profile is capped (Speed 5), holding the explosive ceiling below the home-run hitters
  • The capped athletic profile typically lands Day 2, not Day 1, in the NFL Draft
  • Bigger-frame workhorse usage carries the standard wear/durability watch
HIVE Verdict
Composite hit rate82%
Rookie ADP1.02
HIVE rank02 of 48
vs. consensus—
Startup ADP—
7-day Δ—
Archetype
Complete Three-Down Workhorse · Power + Receiving
Pro compJoe Mixon
Tier-mate context
Tier I cohort2 of 2 · 78%+
Position rankRB1
Class rank2 of 48
03 · The Comparables

Twelve years, 8 prospects.

Threshold
Filtered · RB · ADP 1.01–1.06 · 2014–2025
Hit

Bijan Robinson

2023·1.01
Hits
3
Hit

Jahmyr Gibbs

2023·1.05
Hits
3
Hit

Najee Harris

2021·1.06
Hits
2
Hit

Ashton Jeanty

2025·1.01
Hits
1
Hit

Breece Hall

2022·1.01
Hits
1
Hit

Saquon Barkley

2018·1.01
Hits
6
Miss

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

2020·1.02
Hits
—
Miss

JK Dobbins

2020·1.05
Hits
—
Swipe · 1 / 8View methodology →
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© 2026 HIVE Fantasy · v1.0