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The tape & the data.

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HIVE Fantasy is a dynasty fantasy football brand built on film-informed scouting and proprietary analytical work. We plant flags before consensus catches up.

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The Hive Mind · Weekly

One email a week. Sunday-night ADP shifts before Twitter and every HIVE Take — free for the first 1,000 founder members.

© 2026 HIVE Fantasy · All rights reservedhivesportsapp@gmail.comUpdated weekly · v1.0

2027 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED OCT 19 · 2026 · STATS THROUGH WEEK 5

The 2027 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

BASE is the data — twelve years of SuperFlex hit rates, by position and ADP bucket. ADJ is our overlay: 5+ All-22 games per prospect, applied on top of base. COMP is a locked 25/75 blend, weighted toward the tape for an early-cycle class.

Draft against the column that matches how you evaluate. Data-first → BASE. Tape-first → ADJ. Both → COMP.

/ Methodology

How a hit rate actually gets made.

Twelve years of SuperFlex rookie ADP, mapped against twelve years of dynasty production. A tape overlay applied to every active prospect. The two layers blend 50/50 into the headline number on the board.

12yrbase-rate window
n=412comp pool
5+All-22 per
Read the methodology →
Class
Hit threshold

Toggle to recompute tiers against 1+, 2+, or 3+ career hit seasons. ADP order holds inside each tier.

Position

Click any player for the full scouting deep dive→

#
Player
Pos
School
Hive Take
Team
I
Conviction
Tier I · 78%+ hit rate · 2 prospects
Hist. hit rate: 78%+·Vs last wk: →·2 of 2 shown
01
Jeremiah Smith↗
6'4" · 222 lbs
WR
Ohio State
Big Ten
1.01
52%
99%
87%
Cleanest WR prospect since Julio. Locked 1.01 every format — only debate is which QB goes 1.02.
—
02
Jadan Baugh↗
6'1" · 225 lbs
RB
Florida
SEC
1.02
73%
85%
82%
Florida's complete 3-down workhorse. Mixon archetype — goal-line role + PPR floor, athletic ceiling's the question mark.
—
II
Strong Lean
Tier II · 55–77% hit rate · 11 prospects
Hist. hit rate: 55–77%·Vs last wk: →·11 of 11 shown
01
Charlie Becker↗
6'4" · 208 lbs
WR
Indiana
Big Ten
1.03
52%
80%
73%
6'4/204 athlete who outshone Cooper + Sarratt in title-game moments. Christian Watson archetype — flag-plant, could rise.
—
02
Darian Mensah↗
6'3" · 205 lbs
QB
Miami (FL)
ACC
1.04
68%
75%
73%
Baker Mayfield gunslinger into the Cristobal Miami QB pipeline. The bet is the arm + environment. Declare UNCERTAIN.
—
03
Kewan Lacy↗
5'11" · 205 lbs
RB
Ole Miss
SEC
1.08
45%
76%
68%
Cleanest RB1 case in the class — workhorse usage, breakaway speed, undersold receiving. De-facto 1.06 based on tape.
—
04
Cam Coleman↗
6'3" · 204 lbs
WR
Texas
SEC
1.09
68%
68%
68%
Tier 2 WR in a loaded class — Metcalf ceiling, Pittman floor. Separation isn't JSmith-level, but the QB upgrade is real.
—
05
Ryan Williams↗
6'0" · 184 lbs
WR
Alabama
SEC
1.10
68%
75%
73%
Buy the '24 true fresh tape, fade the '25 drops. Youngest in the class, plenty of upside for a big bounce back szn.
—
06
Jamari Johnson↗
6'5" · 255 lbs
TE
Oregon
Big Ten
1.11
80%
74%
76%
Most complete TE in the class, higher floor than Green. Produced despite Sadiq's presence. Graded better than Sadiq (PFF).
—
07
Dante Moore↗
6'3" · 220 lbs
QB
Oregon
Big Ten
1.12
39%
66%
59%
Bo Nix archetype w/ solid tape and the QB tier's top big-play profile. Size + shotgun-only offense = only questions.
—
08
Trey'Dez Green↗
6'7" · 242 lbs
TE
LSU
SEC
2.02
75%
61%
65%
Class TE1 for now — 6'7/240 catch-radius weapon w/ basketball instincts. Frame, blocking, route tree are the limiters.
—
09
Nate Frazier↗
5'10" · 205 lbs
RB
Georgia
SEC
2.03
40%
65%
59%
Kenneth Walker archetype: explosive 3-down speed, 4.3 wheels. Solid receiving usage. Georgia RB pedigree.
—
10
Julian Sayin↗
6'1" · 214 lbs
QB
Ohio State
Big Ten
2.04
29%
76%
64%
Best pure passer in the class, but no rushing dimension caps the ceiling. Heisman front runner and early first projection.
—
11
Luke Reynolds↗
6'4" · 250 lbs
TE
Virginia Tech
ACC
2.11
57%
62%
61%
One of our favorite sleepers on the board — 5-star TE into the Howle pipeline. Just behind Green/Johnson, NFL traits.
—
Hive Mind · Founder Access

The rest is for Hive Mind.

Unlock the full 2026 board, 12 years of historical SuperFlex ADP and hit-rate data, and every call we've made on the last two rookie classes. Free for now.

  • The full 2026 board (Tiers IV–V) with base + adjusted + composite scores
  • 12 years of SF ADP and hit rates, filterable by position and ADP range
  • Last two classes graded across all three model layers
  • Class-by-class hit rates and all-time position leaders back to 2014
  • Devy board with 2-yr projections
383 of 1,000 founder spots claimed
2027 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED OCT 19 · THROUGH WEEK 5

The 2027 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Every player carries a 25/75 composite of base rate (twelve years of SuperFlex ADP) and adjusted rate (All-22 tape study) — weighted toward the tape for an early-cycle class. The composite is what you draft against.

Year
Threshold
Position
Sort by
Density
13 of 48 shown
I
ConvictionTier I · 78%+ hit rate · 2 prospects
01WR

Jeremiah Smith

Ohio State

Cleanest WR prospect since Julio. Locked 1.01 every format — only debate is which QB goes 1.02.

Base 52%·Adj 99%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
87%Composite
02RB

Jadan Baugh

Florida

Florida's complete 3-down workhorse. Mixon archetype — goal-line role + PPR floor, athletic ceiling's the question mark.

Base 73%·Adj 85%
Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate
82%Composite
II
Strong LeanTier II · 55–77% hit rate · 11 prospects
01TE

Jamari Johnson

Oregon

Most complete TE in the class, higher floor than Green. Produced despite Sadiq's presence. Graded better than Sadiq (PFF).

Base 80%·Adj 74%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
76%Composite
02QB

Darian Mensah

Miami (FL)

Baker Mayfield gunslinger into the Cristobal Miami QB pipeline. The bet is the arm + environment. Declare UNCERTAIN.

Base 68%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
73%Composite
03WR

Ryan Williams

Alabama

Buy the '24 true fresh tape, fade the '25 drops. Youngest in the class, plenty of upside for a big bounce back szn.

Base 68%·Adj 75%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
73%Composite
04WR

Charlie Becker

Indiana

6'4/204 athlete who outshone Cooper + Sarratt in title-game moments. Christian Watson archetype — flag-plant, could rise.

Base 52%·Adj 80%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
73%Composite
05RB

Kewan Lacy

Ole Miss

Cleanest RB1 case in the class — workhorse usage, breakaway speed, undersold receiving. De-facto 1.06 based on tape.

Base 45%·Adj 76%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
68%Composite
06WR

Cam Coleman

Texas

Tier 2 WR in a loaded class — Metcalf ceiling, Pittman floor. Separation isn't JSmith-level, but the QB upgrade is real.

Base 68%·Adj 68%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
68%Composite
07TE

Trey'Dez Green

LSU

Class TE1 for now — 6'7/240 catch-radius weapon w/ basketball instincts. Frame, blocking, route tree are the limiters.

Base 75%·Adj 61%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
65%Composite
08QB

Julian Sayin

Ohio State

Best pure passer in the class, but no rushing dimension caps the ceiling. Heisman front runner and early first projection.

Base 29%·Adj 76%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
64%Composite
09TE

Luke Reynolds

Virginia Tech

One of our favorite sleepers on the board — 5-star TE into the Howle pipeline. Just behind Green/Johnson, NFL traits.

Base 57%·Adj 62%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
61%Composite
10QB

Dante Moore

Oregon

Bo Nix archetype w/ solid tape and the QB tier's top big-play profile. Size + shotgun-only offense = only questions.

Base 39%·Adj 66%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
59%Composite
11RB

Nate Frazier

Georgia

Kenneth Walker archetype: explosive 3-down speed, 4.3 wheels. Solid receiving usage. Georgia RB pedigree.

Base 40%·Adj 65%
Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate
59%Composite
Hive Mind · Founder Tier

The rest of the board, free.

Tiers IV–V — dart-throws and lottery tickets, plus our weekly take revisions. We don't paywall the model.

383/1000 founder spots claimed

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