2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26 · 2026

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

BASE is the data — twelve years of SuperFlex hit rates, by position and ADP bucket. ADJ is our overlay: 5+ All-22 games per prospect, applied on top of base. COMP is a locked 50/50 blend.

Draft against the column that matches how you evaluate. Data-first → BASE. Tape-first → ADJ. Both → COMP.

Class size: 48

Tier I players: 4

Class

Hit threshold

Toggle to recompute tiers against 1+, 2+, or 3+ career hit seasons. ADP order holds inside each tier.

Click any player for the full scouting deep dive→

Player

Pos

School

Hive Take

Team

Conviction

Tier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 78%+Vs last wk: →4 of 4 shown

Jeremiyah Love

6'0" · 212 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.01

73%

95%

84%

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Fernando Mendoza

6'5" · 236 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.03

68%

88%

78%

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Kenyon Sadiq

6'3" · 241 lbs

Oregon

Big Ten

1.07

80%

85%

83%

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Eli Stowers

6'4" · 239 lbs

Vanderbilt

SEC

1.11

80%

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Strong Lean

Tier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 55–77%Vs last wk: →7 of 7 shown

Carnell Tate

6'2" · 192 lbs

Ohio State

Big Ten

1.02

52%

80%

66%

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Jordyn Tyson

6'2" · 203 lbs

Arizona State

Big 12

1.04

52%

80%

66%

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Makai Lemon

5'11" · 192 lbs

USC

Big Ten

1.05

52%

75%

64%

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Jadarian Price

5'11" · 203 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.06

73%

80%

77%

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

KC Concepcion

5'11" · 190 lbs

Texas A&M

SEC

1.08

68%

75%

72%

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Omar Cooper

6'0" · 199 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.09

68%

70%

69%

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Denzel Boston

6'4" · 209 lbs

Washington

Big Ten

1.12

68%

50%

59%

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

III

Coin-Flip

Tier III · 33–54% hit rate · 11 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 33–54%Vs last wk: →11 of 11 shown

Ty Simpson

6'1" · 208 lbs

Alabama

SEC

1.10

39%

35%

37%

Even if he succeeds as a starter (once Stafford retires), probably more of a fantasy QB2, than QB1.

Jonah Coleman

5'8" · 220 lbs

Washington

Big Ten

2.01

40%

52%

46%

Solid prospect. R4 capital + crowded RB room in DEN. May need an injury ahead of him to be relevant Y1.

Chris Bell

6'2" · 222 lbs

Louisville

ACC

2.02

37%

30%

34%

Likely won't be fantasy relevant as a rookie (ACL recovery), but wide open WR room in MIA longer term.

Nicholas Singleton

6'0" · 219 lbs

Penn State

Big Ten

2.03

40%

35%

38%

Lands in TEN, competing w/a declining Pollard and disappointing Spears for touches. Opportunity's there.

Antonio Williams

5'11" · 187 lbs

Clemson

ACC

2.04

37%

48%

43%

Gets great landing spot w/WASH in the 3rd round. One of the better bets to hit at WR outside the top guys.

Germie Bernard

6'1" · 206 lbs

Alabama

SEC

2.05

37%

35%

36%

Got better than expected draft capital, but PIT landing spot is pretty rough. 3rd target at best Y1…

Kaytron Allen

5'11" · 216 lbs

Penn State

Big Ten

2.06

40%

36%

38%

Day 3 capital, but just has to compete with JCM and White for touches. He could surprise some people.

De'Zhaun Stribling

6'2" · 207 lbs

Ole Miss

SEC

2.09

14%

52%

33%

Early R2 draft capital, probably the 3rd/4th option in that passing attack Y1. Need to be patient w/him.

Max Klare

6'5" · 243 lbs

Ohio State

Big Ten

3.03

38%

50%

44%

Good draft capital, solid prospect. But very crowded TE room in LA..needs to outdo Ferguson long term.

Eli Raridon

6'6" · 245 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

3.09

38%

45%

42%

Could be heir apparent to Hunter Henry in NE, tied to Maye. Good athletic traits to bet on.

Oscar Delp

6'5" · 245 lbs

Georgia

SEC

3.11

38%

52%

45%

May have to wait his turn behind Juwan Johnson, but long term, could be more productive in nfl than he was in cfb..

Hive Mind · Founder Access

The rest is for Hive Mind.

Unlock the full 2026 board, 12 years of historical SuperFlex ADP and hit-rate data, and every call we've made on the last two rookie classes. Free for now.

The full 2026 board (Tiers IV–V) with base + adjusted + composite scores
12 years of SF ADP and hit rates, filterable by position and ADP range
Last two classes graded across all three model layers
Class-by-class hit rates and all-time position leaders back to 2014
Devy board with 2-yr projections

387 of 1,000 founder spots claimed

2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Every player carries a 50/50 composite of base rate (twelve years of SuperFlex ADP) and adjusted rate (All-22 tape study). The composite is what you draft against.

Sort by

Density

22 of 48 shown

ConvictionTier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects

01RB

Jeremiyah Love

Notre Dame

ARI

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Base 73%·Adj 95%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

84%Composite

02TE

Kenyon Sadiq

Oregon

NYJ

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Base 80%·Adj 85%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

83%Composite

03TE

Eli Stowers

Vanderbilt

PHI

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Base 80%·Adj 80%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

80%Composite

04QB

Fernando Mendoza

Indiana

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Base 68%·Adj 88%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

78%Composite

Strong LeanTier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects

01RB

Jadarian Price

Notre Dame

SEA

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

Base 73%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

77%Composite

02WR

KC Concepcion

Texas A&M

CLE

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Base 68%·Adj 75%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

72%Composite

03WR

Omar Cooper

Indiana

NYJ

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Base 68%·Adj 70%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

69%Composite

04WR

Carnell Tate

Ohio State

TEN

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Base 52%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

66%Composite

05WR

Jordyn Tyson

Arizona State

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Base 52%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

66%Composite

06WR

Makai Lemon

USC

PHI

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Base 52%·Adj 75%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

64%Composite

07WR

Denzel Boston

Washington

CLE

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

Base 68%·Adj 50%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

59%Composite

Coin-FlipTier III · 33–54% hit rate · 11 prospects

01RB

Jonah Coleman

Washington

DEN

Solid prospect. R4 capital + crowded RB room in DEN. May need an injury ahead of him to be relevant Y1.

Base 40%·Adj 52%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

46%Composite

02TE

Oscar Delp

Georgia

May have to wait his turn behind Juwan Johnson, but long term, could be more productive in nfl than he was in cfb..

Base 38%·Adj 52%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

45%Composite

03TE

Max Klare

Ohio State

LAR

Good draft capital, solid prospect. But very crowded TE room in LA..needs to outdo Ferguson long term.

Base 38%·Adj 50%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

44%Composite

04WR

Antonio Williams

Clemson

WAS

Gets great landing spot w/WASH in the 3rd round. One of the better bets to hit at WR outside the top guys.

Base 37%·Adj 48%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

43%Composite

05TE

Eli Raridon

Notre Dame

Could be heir apparent to Hunter Henry in NE, tied to Maye. Good athletic traits to bet on.

Base 38%·Adj 45%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

42%Composite

06RB

Kaytron Allen

Penn State

WAS

Day 3 capital, but just has to compete with JCM and White for touches. He could surprise some people.

Base 40%·Adj 36%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

38%Composite

07RB

Nicholas Singleton

Penn State

TEN

Lands in TEN, competing w/a declining Pollard and disappointing Spears for touches. Opportunity's there.

Base 40%·Adj 35%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

38%Composite

08QB

Ty Simpson

Alabama

LAR

Even if he succeeds as a starter (once Stafford retires), probably more of a fantasy QB2, than QB1.

Base 39%·Adj 35%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

37%Composite

09WR

Germie Bernard

Alabama

PIT

Got better than expected draft capital, but PIT landing spot is pretty rough. 3rd target at best Y1…

Base 37%·Adj 35%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

36%Composite

10WR

Chris Bell

Louisville

MIA

Likely won't be fantasy relevant as a rookie (ACL recovery), but wide open WR room in MIA longer term.

Base 37%·Adj 30%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

34%Composite

11WR

De'Zhaun Stribling

Ole Miss

Early R2 draft capital, probably the 3rd/4th option in that passing attack Y1. Need to be patient w/him.

Base 14%·Adj 52%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

33%Composite

Hive Mind · Founder Tier

The rest of the board, free.

Tiers IV–V — dart-throws and lottery tickets, plus our weekly take revisions. We don't paywall the model.

387/1000 founder spots claimed

Email only · No card

2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26 · 2026

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Class size: 48

Tier I players: 4

Class

Hit threshold

Toggle to recompute tiers against 1+, 2+, or 3+ career hit seasons. ADP order holds inside each tier.

Click any player for the full scouting deep dive→

Player

Pos

School

Hive Take

Team

Conviction

Tier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 78%+Vs last wk: →4 of 4 shown

Jeremiyah Love

6'0" · 212 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.01

73%

95%

84%

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Fernando Mendoza

6'5" · 236 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.03

68%

88%

78%

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Kenyon Sadiq

6'3" · 241 lbs

Oregon

Big Ten

1.07

80%

85%

83%

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Eli Stowers

6'4" · 239 lbs

Vanderbilt

SEC

1.11

80%

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Strong Lean

Tier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 55–77%Vs last wk: →7 of 7 shown

Carnell Tate

6'2" · 192 lbs

Ohio State

Big Ten

1.02

52%

80%

66%

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Jordyn Tyson

6'2" · 203 lbs

Arizona State

Big 12

1.04

52%

80%

66%

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Makai Lemon

5'11" · 192 lbs

USC

Big Ten

1.05

52%

75%

64%

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Jadarian Price

5'11" · 203 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

1.06

73%

80%

77%

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

KC Concepcion

5'11" · 190 lbs

Texas A&M

SEC

1.08

68%

75%

72%

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Omar Cooper

6'0" · 199 lbs

Indiana

Big Ten

1.09

68%

70%

69%

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Denzel Boston

6'4" · 209 lbs

Washington

Big Ten

1.12

68%

50%

59%

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

III

Coin-Flip

Tier III · 33–54% hit rate · 11 prospects

Hist. hit rate: 33–54%Vs last wk: →11 of 11 shown

Ty Simpson

6'1" · 208 lbs

Alabama

SEC

1.10

39%

35%

37%

Even if he succeeds as a starter (once Stafford retires), probably more of a fantasy QB2, than QB1.

Jonah Coleman

5'8" · 220 lbs

Washington

Big Ten

2.01

40%

52%

46%

Solid prospect. R4 capital + crowded RB room in DEN. May need an injury ahead of him to be relevant Y1.

Chris Bell

6'2" · 222 lbs

Louisville

ACC

2.02

37%

30%

34%

Likely won't be fantasy relevant as a rookie (ACL recovery), but wide open WR room in MIA longer term.

Nicholas Singleton

6'0" · 219 lbs

Penn State

Big Ten

2.03

40%

35%

38%

Lands in TEN, competing w/a declining Pollard and disappointing Spears for touches. Opportunity's there.

Antonio Williams

5'11" · 187 lbs

Clemson

ACC

2.04

37%

48%

43%

Gets great landing spot w/WASH in the 3rd round. One of the better bets to hit at WR outside the top guys.

Germie Bernard

6'1" · 206 lbs

Alabama

SEC

2.05

37%

35%

36%

Got better than expected draft capital, but PIT landing spot is pretty rough. 3rd target at best Y1…

Kaytron Allen

5'11" · 216 lbs

Penn State

Big Ten

2.06

40%

36%

38%

Day 3 capital, but just has to compete with JCM and White for touches. He could surprise some people.

De'Zhaun Stribling

6'2" · 207 lbs

Ole Miss

SEC

2.09

14%

52%

33%

Early R2 draft capital, probably the 3rd/4th option in that passing attack Y1. Need to be patient w/him.

Max Klare

6'5" · 243 lbs

Ohio State

Big Ten

3.03

38%

50%

44%

Good draft capital, solid prospect. But very crowded TE room in LA..needs to outdo Ferguson long term.

Eli Raridon

6'6" · 245 lbs

Notre Dame

Independent

3.09

38%

45%

42%

Could be heir apparent to Hunter Henry in NE, tied to Maye. Good athletic traits to bet on.

Oscar Delp

6'5" · 245 lbs

Georgia

SEC

3.11

38%

52%

45%

May have to wait his turn behind Juwan Johnson, but long term, could be more productive in nfl than he was in cfb..

Hive Mind · Founder Access

The rest is for Hive Mind.

Unlock the full 2026 board, 12 years of historical SuperFlex ADP and hit-rate data, and every call we've made on the last two rookie classes. Free for now.

The full 2026 board (Tiers IV–V) with base + adjusted + composite scores
12 years of SF ADP and hit rates, filterable by position and ADP range
Last two classes graded across all three model layers
Class-by-class hit rates and all-time position leaders back to 2014
Devy board with 2-yr projections

387 of 1,000 founder spots claimed

2026 SUPERFLEX · UPDATED APR 26

The 2026 rookie class, ranked by hit probability.

Every player carries a 50/50 composite of base rate (twelve years of SuperFlex ADP) and adjusted rate (All-22 tape study). The composite is what you draft against.

Sort by

Density

22 of 48 shown

ConvictionTier I · 78%+ hit rate · 4 prospects

01RB

Jeremiyah Love

Notre Dame

ARI

Generational talent. Best bet in the class - Top 4 Dynasty RB on day 1.

Base 73%·Adj 95%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

84%Composite

02TE

Kenyon Sadiq

Oregon

NYJ

Small sample of TEs for this ADP range. Athletic specimen w/Vernon Davis type upside.

Base 80%·Adj 85%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

83%Composite

03TE

Eli Stowers

Vanderbilt

PHI

Another great athlete, arguably a better FOOTBALL PLAYER than Sadiq. But buried Y1 in Philly.

Base 80%·Adj 80%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

80%Composite

04QB

Fernando Mendoza

Indiana

Football obsessed. High floor, moderate ceiling. Mid/Low End QB2 in Dynasty Y1.

Base 68%·Adj 88%

Tier I · CONVICTION78%+ hit rate

78%Composite

Strong LeanTier II · 55–77% hit rate · 7 prospects

01RB

Jadarian Price

Notre Dame

SEA

Great landing spot + capital, but his ADP range would likely be late 1st in most classes (so base rate = misleading).

Base 73%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

77%Composite

02WR

KC Concepcion

Texas A&M

CLE

Great prospect, and solid draft capital. Rough landing spot. Might have to be patient with him.

Base 68%·Adj 75%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

72%Composite

03WR

Omar Cooper

Indiana

NYJ

Similar to KC, good capital, rough landing spot, at least Y1, before Jets address QB next yr.

Base 68%·Adj 70%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

69%Composite

04WR

Carnell Tate

Ohio State

TEN

Ward's long term WR1 + Top 5 NFL capital = Top 15-20 Dynasty WR. Safest WR bet in the class.

Base 52%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

66%Composite

05WR

Jordyn Tyson

Arizona State

Kellen Moore offense = fantasy friendly. The likely 1B to Olave's 1A. Top 25-30 WR in Dynasty.

Base 52%·Adj 80%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

66%Composite

06WR

Makai Lemon

USC

PHI

Stud prospect. Questionable landing spot. Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, especially Y1…

Base 52%·Adj 75%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

64%Composite

07WR

Denzel Boston

Washington

CLE

Model likes him because he's in the late 1st range at WR. But historically bad class = misleading base rate.

Base 68%·Adj 50%

Tier II · STRONG LEAN55–77% hit rate

59%Composite

Coin-FlipTier III · 33–54% hit rate · 11 prospects

01RB

Jonah Coleman

Washington

DEN

Solid prospect. R4 capital + crowded RB room in DEN. May need an injury ahead of him to be relevant Y1.

Base 40%·Adj 52%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

46%Composite

02TE

Oscar Delp

Georgia

May have to wait his turn behind Juwan Johnson, but long term, could be more productive in nfl than he was in cfb..

Base 38%·Adj 52%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

45%Composite

03TE

Max Klare

Ohio State

LAR

Good draft capital, solid prospect. But very crowded TE room in LA..needs to outdo Ferguson long term.

Base 38%·Adj 50%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

44%Composite

04WR

Antonio Williams

Clemson

WAS

Gets great landing spot w/WASH in the 3rd round. One of the better bets to hit at WR outside the top guys.

Base 37%·Adj 48%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

43%Composite

05TE

Eli Raridon

Notre Dame

Could be heir apparent to Hunter Henry in NE, tied to Maye. Good athletic traits to bet on.

Base 38%·Adj 45%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

42%Composite

06RB

Kaytron Allen

Penn State

WAS

Day 3 capital, but just has to compete with JCM and White for touches. He could surprise some people.

Base 40%·Adj 36%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

38%Composite

07RB

Nicholas Singleton

Penn State

TEN

Lands in TEN, competing w/a declining Pollard and disappointing Spears for touches. Opportunity's there.

Base 40%·Adj 35%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

38%Composite

08QB

Ty Simpson

Alabama

LAR

Even if he succeeds as a starter (once Stafford retires), probably more of a fantasy QB2, than QB1.

Base 39%·Adj 35%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

37%Composite

09WR

Germie Bernard

Alabama

PIT

Got better than expected draft capital, but PIT landing spot is pretty rough. 3rd target at best Y1…

Base 37%·Adj 35%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

36%Composite

10WR

Chris Bell

Louisville

MIA

Likely won't be fantasy relevant as a rookie (ACL recovery), but wide open WR room in MIA longer term.

Base 37%·Adj 30%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

34%Composite

11WR

De'Zhaun Stribling

Ole Miss

Early R2 draft capital, probably the 3rd/4th option in that passing attack Y1. Need to be patient w/him.

Base 14%·Adj 52%

Tier III · COIN-FLIP33–54% hit rate

33%Composite

Hive Mind · Founder Tier

The rest of the board, free.

Tiers IV–V — dart-throws and lottery tickets, plus our weekly take revisions. We don't paywall the model.

387/1000 founder spots claimed

Email only · No card