
Trey McBride's volume beats the toughest matchup on the board, and Isaiah Likely keeps rolling with Jameis Winston. Backup quarterbacks in Baltimore and Philadelphia sink Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Our Week 6 tight end calls.
This is the week tight end gets decided by everybody else. Three quarterbacks are out, a top receiver is on IR, and Buffalo's top receiver is a game-time toss-up. The tight ends didn't change much. The players around them did, and every call below starts there.
Here's the short version. Start McBride, Kittle, and Likely. Sit Andrews, Goedert, and Pitts. Let's jump right into it.
This covers every Sunday and Monday game, including London (Houston at Jacksonville, 9:30 a.m. ET), Sunday night (Dallas at Green Bay), and Monday night (Washington at San Francisco). Seattle-Denver was played Thursday night, so AJ Barner and Evan Engram aren't here. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, and Minnesota are on bye. Built Friday night off the Friday injury reports.
| TE | Matchup | Tgt share | Opp pts allowed | Proj | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | LV vs BUF | 27.8% | 12.8 · 18th | 20.0 | Start |
| Trey McBride | ARI @ LAR | 21.7% | 5.7 · 32nd | 17.4 | Start |
| George Kittle | SF vs WAS | 24.0% | 22.2 · 3rd | 16.1 | Start |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG vs NO | 25.0% | 16.7 · 7th | 13.8 | Start |
| Travis Kelce | KC vs LAC | 14.8% | 9.8 · 24th | 13.4 | Start, lower the bar |
| Tyler Warren | IND vs TEN | 20.9% | 10.0 · 22nd | 13.1 | Start, lower the bar |
| Tucker Kraft | GB vs DAL | 16.1% | 13.6 · 15th | 12.8 | Start, lower the bar |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF @ LV | 11.1% | 18.9 · 6th | 12.3 | Start, lower the bar |
| Juwan Johnson | NO @ NYG | 20.8% | 14.4 · 14th | 11.0 | Stream |
| Colston Loveland | CHI @ ATL | 12.5% | 14.6 · 13th | 10.6 | Fringe |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs BAL | 12.5% | 11.8 · 19th | 10.2 | Fringe |
| Brenton Strange | JAX vs HOU | 21.1% | 9.0 · 27th | 10.0 | Sit |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT @ TB | 23.3% | 15.7 · 11th | 9.9 | Sit |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI vs CAR | 25.7% | 16.6 · 9th | 9.8 | Sit |
| Mark Andrews | BAL @ CLE | 19.4% | 14.6 · 12th | 9.6 | Sit |
| Hunter Henry | NE vs NYJ | 12.9% | 8.4 · 28th | 9.4 | Deep streamer |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR vs ARI | 11.1% | 19.3 · 5th | 8.7 | Deep streamer |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU @ JAX | 12.1% | 9.5 · 26th | 8.7 | Sit |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL @ GB | 14.3% | 9.6 · 25th | 8.3 | Sit |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL vs CHI | 18.2% | 7.3 · 31st | 8.2 | Sit |
| Michael Mayer | LV vs BUF | 2.8% | 12.8 · 18th | 8.0 | Sit |
Projections are ours, in full-PPR points with DraftKings scoring. "Tgt share" is his share of his team's targets in his most recent game. "Opp pts allowed" is the fantasy points per game that defense has given up to tight ends, with 1st being the most generous.
01 · Start
Brock Bowers (LV vs BUF). The top tight end on the board this week. He's averaging 23.7 points in his three games, and he's never been below 20 in any of them. Buffalo is about average against the position, but this game carries a 53.5 total, tied for the highest of the week, and the prop markets have him at 81.8 receiving yards with a coin-flip chance to score. Lock him in.
The number: 50%. The betting market's odds that Bowers finds the end zone. Highest of any tight end this week.
Trey McBride (ARI @ LAR). On paper, this is the worst matchup on the board; the Rams have allowed the fewest points to tight ends in football. But Arizona is a 12.5-point underdog, and trailing teams throw. McBride played 90% of the snaps last week, saw 10 targets, and the market has him at seven catches. Volume wins here. Start him.
George Kittle (SF vs WAS). The best matchup of any top tight end. Washington has given up the third-most points to the position, and San Francisco carries a 30-point team total on Monday night. Last week's 7.4 points on six targets was a dip, not a trend; he still played 92% of the snaps and owns 24% of the targets. Start him with confidence.
Isaiah Likely (NYG vs NO). Jameis Winston is throwing to him now with Jaxson Dart on IR, and that hasn't slowed Likely down. He saw 13 targets and scored 32.4 points last week, he practiced in full all week, and fellow Giants tight end Theo Johnson (neck) is out, which leaves fewer hands on the position. New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most points to tight ends. Start him.
The number: 13. Likely's targets last week, a quarter of everything the Giants threw.
Start, but lower the bar: Kelce, Warren, Kraft, and Kincaid. Travis Kelce is coming off a 3.5-point game, and the Chargers have been on the stingy side against tight ends, but Kansas City is a 7.5-point favorite and the market still gives him a 36% shot at a touchdown. Tyler Warren is the riskier one. His groin injury is new: he hurt it in individual drills Friday, per ESPN's Stephen Holder, and the Colts added him to the report as questionable. We still lean toward him playing, and when he plays, the role is big: nine targets and 21.4 points last week, with Indianapolis a seven-point favorite. But with Will Mallory on IR, the Colts are thin at tight end, so this isn't an injury they can easily manage around. Tucker Kraft gets a 53.5 total on Sunday night against a Dallas defense that's middle of the pack against the position. Dalton Kincaid gets a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the sixth-most points to tight ends, and Buffalo is projected for 29 points. But the prop markets already assume DJ Moore sits, and even so they have Kincaid at about four catches and 49.1 yards. He's scored 9.2 points across his last three games combined, so this is a bet on the matchup, not a bigger role. All four are low-end TE1s this week.
02 · Sit
Mark Andrews (BAL @ CLE). Lamar Jackson is out, so Tyler Huntley is under center, and this game sits at 39.5, one of the lowest totals of the week. Cleveland is middle of the pack against tight ends. Andrews' 19% target share is fine. The problem is what a Huntley-led offense does with it. The prop markets have him at three and a half catches. We'd rather have Fannin.
The number: 28.6. Andrews' median receiving yards in the betting market with Huntley at quarterback.
Dallas Goedert (PHI vs CAR). The matchup isn't the issue; Carolina has allowed the ninth-most points to tight ends, and Goedert saw nine targets last week. The quarterback is. Jalen Hurts is out, Tanner McKee is starting, and Philadelphia is a three-point home underdog with an 18.25-point implied total. That's not an environment that supports a tight end. Sit him.
Brenton Strange (JAX vs HOU). The role is real: 21% of the targets and 13.8 points last week. Houston is the issue. They've allowed the sixth-fewest points to tight ends, and this game is going off at a 42.5 total in London. The market gives him a 20% chance at a touchdown. Sit him.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT @ TB). The closest of the sits. He's coming off 21.5 points on 23% of the targets, and Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-most points to tight ends. However, the total is 38.5, the lowest of the week, and Darnell Washington is still taking his share of the snaps. That's too thin for us.
Kyle Pitts (ATL vs CHI). The game around him is fine, a 52.5 total. The matchup isn't. Chicago has allowed the second-fewest points to tight ends, and Pitts is averaging 5.4 points a game. The prop markets have him under three catches. Sit him.
Everyone else. Dalton Schultz played just 52% of the snaps last week. Jake Ferguson's market median is 24.5 yards, even with a 53.5 total. Michael Mayer saw one target last week. Sit all three.
03 · Streamers
04 · Injury watch
Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. Disagree with a call? Good. Let us know.