Barkley, Breece Hall and Jeremiyah Love are out, which hands Dameon Pierce, Braelon Allen and Tyler Allgeier lead roles. Only one of them is a start. Plus Javonte Williams on Sunday night. Our Week 6 running back calls.
Injuries hand out new lead roles every week, but a lead role is not the same thing as a good start. The question we keep asking is the same one: who is getting the ball, and is that offense going to do anything with it? A back with 20 touches on a team projected for 18 points is a very different play from a back with 16 touches on a team projected for 30.
This week, three backfields changed hands. Saquon Barkley is out, so Dameon Pierce leads Philadelphia. Breece Hall is out, so Braelon Allen leads the Jets with Isaiah Davis behind him. Jeremiyah Love is out, so Tyler Allgeier takes over in Arizona. Travis Etienne is on IR in New Orleans, TreVeyon Henderson is fighting a high-ankle sprain in New England, and Lamar Jackson is out for Baltimore, which changes the picture for Derrick Henry.
Here's the short version. Start Javonte Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Braelon Allen. Sit Dameon Pierce, Alvin Kamara, and Rachaad White. Let's jump right into it.
This covers every Sunday and Monday game, including the 9:30 a.m. ET London game (Houston at Jacksonville), Sunday night (Dallas at Green Bay), and Monday night (Washington at San Francisco). Seattle at Denver was played Thursday night, so those backs are left out. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, and Minnesota are on bye. Built Friday night with Friday's injury reports.
| RB | Matchup | W5 snaps | Opp pts allowed | Proj | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs CHI | 81% | 18.4 · 26th | 25.1 | Start |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs WAS | 82% | 15.8 · 31st | 22.8 | Start |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs TEN | 73% | 19.2 · 22nd | 22.8 | Start |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs LAC | 75% (W4) | 21.7 · 13th | 22.1 | Start |
| Kyren Williams | LAR vs ARI | 73% | 19.7 · 20th | 20.9 | Start |
| James Cook | BUF @ LV | 63% | 22.3 · 12th | 18.7 | Start |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs NYJ | 71% | 23.9 · 9th | 18.5 | Start |
| Derrick Henry | BAL @ CLE | 55% | 17.6 · 27th | 18.3 | Start, lower the bar |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs BUF | 53% | 28.2 · 3rd | 18.3 | Start |
| Javonte Williams | DAL @ GB | 85% | 28.4 · 2nd | 17.9 | Start |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ ATL | 58% | 19.6 · 21st | 17.1 | Start |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR @ PHI | 84% (W4) | 20.8 · 15th | 16.9 | Start |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT @ TB | 87% | 16.9 · 28th | 16.5 | Start, lower the bar |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ @ NE | 86% | 21.6 · 14th | 15.0 | Start |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs PIT | 54% | 22.5 · 11th | 14.0 | Flex |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG vs NO | 63% | 31.1 · 1st | 13.5 | Flex |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs HOU | 68% | 16.7 · 29th | 13.4 | Flex |
| Woody Marks | HOU @ JAX | 85% | 16.3 · 30th | 13.2 | Flex |
| Tony Pollard | TEN @ IND | 48% | 25.8 · 6th | 12.9 | Fringe flex |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB vs DAL | 44% | 25.3 · 8th | 12.9 | Fringe flex |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI @ LAR | 44% | 20.1 · 18th | 12.6 | Fringe flex |
| Quinshon Judkins (Q) | CLE vs BAL | 53% | 18.8 · 23rd | 11.7 | Deep flex if active |
| Kendre Miller | NO @ NYG | 31% | 20.3 · 17th | 10.6 | Deep leagues |
| Blake Corum | LAR vs ARI | 27% | 19.7 · 20th | 10.5 | Deep leagues |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI vs CAR | 77% | 28.0 · 4th | 10.0 | Sit |
| Rachaad White | WAS @ SF | 60% | 23.6 · 10th | 9.5 | Sit |
| Alvin Kamara (Q) | NO @ NYG | 27% | 20.3 · 17th | 8.7 | Sit |
Projections are ours, in full-PPR points with DraftKings scoring. For questionable players, the number shown is the projection if he plays. Kansas City and Carolina were on bye in Week 5, so Walker's and Hubbard's snap shares are from Week 4. "Opp pts allowed" is the fantasy points per game that defense has given up to running backs, catches included, with 1st being the most generous.
01 · Start
Javonte Williams (DAL @ GB). This is the one we like most. Williams played 85% of the snaps last week, which is as close to a full workload as any back on this list, and Green Bay has given up the second-most points to running backs in the league. The Sunday night game carries a 53.5 total, tied for the highest on the board, and Dallas is implied for 26 points. The betting market has him around 17 carries and 67 rushing yards with a 62% chance to score. He put up 31.3 two weeks ago. Fire him up as an RB1.
The number: 28.4 points per game allowed to RBs by Green Bay. Second-most in the NFL.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE vs NYJ). Stevenson has scored 18.4 and 17.5 the last two weeks, and he played 71% of the snaps in Week 5 while Henderson played 16%. Henderson was limited all week with a high-ankle sprain, and we expect him to sit. New England is a 7.5-point favorite with a 25.5-point team total, and the Jets have allowed the ninth-most points to backs. With Henderson out, the backfield is Stevenson's, with Corey Kiner spelling him. He's an RB2 with upside.
Braelon Allen (NYJ @ NE). Hall is out, and we already know what that looks like: last week Allen played 86% of the snaps with 24 carries and four targets, and scored 18.6. The concern is game script, since the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs with an 18-point team total. But prop markets still have him near 17 carries, and Isaiah Davis is next in line. Volume like that plays in any script. Start him as an RB2.
The number: 24 carries in Week 5. Only Cook had more among the backs on this list.
Kyren Williams (LAR vs ARI). The Rams are 12.5-point favorites with a 32-point team total, the highest on the slate. Williams played 73% of the snaps last week with eight targets, and he's scored 19.6 or more in three straight games. The Cardinals have been middle of the pack against backs. Blake Corum will take some of the late carries if this gets out of hand, but that's a problem for the fourth quarter.
Ashton Jeanty (LV vs BUF). Jeanty has played just over half the snaps, but he's seen 16.7% of the targets, and Buffalo has allowed the third-most points to running backs. This game has the same 53.5 total as Sunday night. Lock him in.
Christian McCaffrey (SF vs WAS). The matchup says no: Washington has allowed the second-fewest points to backs. Everything else says yes. San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite on Monday night with a 30-point team total, McCaffrey played 82% of the snaps last week, and he's scored at least 16 points in every one of the last three games. Workload beats matchup.
Start, but lower the bar: Henry and Warren. Derrick Henry is still getting the ball. He had 24 carries last week, and the market has him around 20 to 21 carries, the most of any back this week. But with Lamar Jackson out, Baltimore's team total is just 21.25, and Cleveland has been one of the stingier defenses against backs. Expect a grinding day closer to 18 points than 25. Jaylen Warren, meanwhile, played 87% of the snaps last week and scored 36.8. Rico Dowdle practiced in full Friday and should play, though, and Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay has a 38.5 total, the lowest of the week. Tampa Bay has held backs to the fifth-fewest points. He's an RB2, not an RB1.
02 · Sit
Dameon Pierce (PHI vs CAR). This is the one most managers will get wrong. Pierce inherits the lead role with Barkley out, and on paper the matchup is great: Carolina has given up the fourth-most points to running backs. And the role is real. Last week he played 77% of the snaps with 11 carries and five targets. He turned those 16 opportunities into 3.2 points. Philadelphia's backs have been scoring well below what their touches should produce, Jalen Hurts is also out, and the Eagles are implied for just 18.25 points. We have him at 10 points, behind every back we'd flex. Sit him.
The number: 0.53. That's the fantasy points Philadelphia's backs are scoring per opportunity, against 0.75 for a typical back with the same touches.
Alvin Kamara (NO @ NYG). Etienne going on IR should have opened things up. It hasn't. Kamara is questionable after being limited all week with a back injury, and last week he was already a part-timer: about a quarter of the snaps, three carries, three routes run, and 2.6 points. CJ Donaldson led the Saints' backs in snaps at 42%, and Kendre Miller took 71% of the carries but didn't see a single target. If Kamara plays, expect a three-way split. Miller is the best of the three for us, and even he is a deep-league play. Kamara is a sit.
The number: 26%. That's the betting market's chance Kamara scores a touchdown, lower than Kendre Miller's 34%.
Rachaad White (WAS @ SF). On paper, this should be White's backfield. Jacory Croskey-Merritt missed practice Thursday and Friday with a groin injury, and we expect him to sit Monday night. But White was downgraded to a limited practice Friday with a shoulder issue, and Austin Ekeler was limited too with a chest injury. Even healthy, White did little with the job last week: 60% of the snaps, seven carries, one target, three points. San Francisco has been generous to backs, but Washington is a 7.5-point underdog, and a banged-up lead back with almost no receiving role isn't one we want. Sit him, and keep an eye on the Monday reports.
TreVeyon Henderson (NE vs NYJ). He's questionable with a high-ankle sprain, and reports earlier in the week suggested it could cost him multiple weeks. Most of the reporting expects him to sit, and New England won't decide until Sunday morning, so we lean out. Even if he's active, he's on a pitch count after a 16% snap share last week. Bench him.
03 · Close calls
04 · Injury watch
The London game kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET, so set your Texans and Jaguars before breakfast. Inactives come out 90 minutes before each kickoff. Disagree with a call? Good. Let us know.
