Week 5 WR Start/Sit

This is also a week where health decides as much as talent does. The good news first: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Malik Nabers all practiced in full Friday, and Justin Jefferson practiced Friday after two limited days. The bad news: Stefon Diggs, Quentin Johnston, Michael Pittman Jr., and Tank Dell have all been ruled out, and Ladd McConkey didn't practice once.

Here's the short version. Start Michael Wilson, Collins, and Metcalf. Sit Evans, McConkey, and Sutton. Now, without further ado, let's get into it.

This covers the eleven Sunday afternoon games. Thursday night, London, Sunday night, and Monday night aren't included, and Kansas City and Carolina are on bye. Updated Saturday for Friday's injury reports.

Projections are ours, in full-PPR points with DraftKings scoring. For questionable players, the number shown is the projection if he plays. Tre' Harris's Wednesday projection came before Quentin Johnston was ruled out and Denver lost both starting corners, so treat it as a floor. "Opp pts allowed" is the fantasy points per game that defense has given up to all receivers, with 1st being the most generous.

01 · Start

Start 'em.

Michael Wilson (ARI vs DET). Hands down our favorite receiver call of the week. Wilson owns nearly 30% of Arizona's targets, and over the last two weeks, he's seen 17 and 13 of them. Now he gets the best game environment on the slate (54.5 total) as a home underdog, against a Detroit defense that has given up the second-most points to receivers. What's more, it isn't a schedule fluke: receivers are scoring about 10 more points per game against Detroit than they usually do. And Detroit will be without safety Brian Branch and corner Rock Ya-Sin on Sunday. Start him as a WR2 and don't look back.

The number: 30 targets over the last two weeks. Most of any player on the slate.

Nico Collins (HOU @ TEN). Yes, Houston-Tennessee carries the lowest total on the slate. Even still, Collins projects as a top-four receiver because Tennessee is bad against the pass, and receivers have been scoring well above their usual numbers against them. The script risk is real with Houston favored by 7.5, but the efficiency on his targets more than makes up for it. Tank Dell has also been ruled out, which concentrates the looks even further.

DK Metcalf (PIT vs IND). Pittsburgh throws more than any team in football relative to the game situation, and Metcalf runs a route on 92% of dropbacks. He isn't especially efficient with his opportunities, but in this offense, he doesn't need to be. With Michael Pittman Jr. ruled out, there are even more targets to go around. That's a safe WR3 floor.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs CLE). Cleveland plays more man coverage than any defense in the league, and the Jets as a team struggle against it. However, that's a problem for the rest of the Jets' receivers, not Wilson. He's been twice as productive against man as he has been against zone this year. The 39.5 total is the real concern, but he's still a WR2 on a 28% target share.

Chris Olave (NO vs MIN). Start him, but lower the bar. Minnesota has the best defense in football, but its numbers against receivers have been middle of the pack, and Olave feasts on the zone coverage Minnesota plays almost every snap. He's scored at least 22.6 points every single week. Shough practiced in full Thursday and Friday, so the quarterback situation is fine. Just don't bank on a fifth straight 22.

02 · Sit

Sit 'em.

Mike Evans (SF @ SEA). Seattle has given up the second-fewest points to receivers in the league, roughly 10 points per game below what those offenses usually score. Evans is also questionable with rib soreness (he's expected to play), and he's played just 33% and 59% of the snaps the last two weeks. We'd take almost any healthy WR3 with a real target floor over him this week.

The number: 21.3 points per game allowed to WRs by Seattle. Second-fewest in the NFL.

Ladd McConkey (LAC vs DEN). Two targets and 34% of the snaps last week, and now he didn't practice once this week after aggravating his foot injury. He's questionable, but even if he suits up, we wouldn't trust him. Bench him.

Courtland Sutton (DEN @ LAC). The usage is fine, and the matchup got a little softer with the Chargers missing safety Derwin James and corner Donte Jackson. The production, on the other hand, isn't there: 4.4 points per game. In our view, he's a buy-low trade target who can be had for pennies on the dollar. Not a Week 5 start.

03 · Close calls

The close calls.

• Golden and Watson. This is where the points-allowed numbers changed our minds. Chicago's coverage looks beatable for Green Bay on paper, but the Bears have given up the fourth-fewest points to receivers. They keep the ball away from wideouts. Matthew Golden is the steadier of the two Packers, so he's a WR3. Christian Watson saw three targets last week and has struggled against man coverage, which Chicago plays plenty of. He's a boom-or-bust flex.
• Tre' Harris, upgraded to flex. We had him as a sit on Wednesday. Then Quentin Johnston was ruled out, McConkey missed the whole week, and Denver lost both starting corners, Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss. That makes Harris the likely top target for Justin Herbert against a depleted secondary. The Chargers' offense is still one of the worst in football, so he's a flex, not a WR2.
• Carnell Tate over Ladd McConkey. Nobody wants to start a Titan, we get it. But Tate saw 12 targets last week, and Houston has given up the most points to receivers in football. That's a real flex with a real floor.
• Luther Burden over Rome Odunze. Caleb Williams is questionable but expected to sit again, and Tyson Bagent at quarterback hurts both. Burden has the bigger target share, and Green Bay has been generous to receivers. Flex only.
• Olave over Watson. The sims can't separate them. We'll take the guy who has hit 22-plus four weeks running.

04 · Injury watch

Injury watch.

• Justin Jefferson (ankle, questionable). He practiced Friday after two limited days, Kevin O'Connell says he progressed, and Jefferson says the plan is to play. If he's active, he's a WR1. Minnesota kicks off at 1 p.m. ET, so you'll know at inactives. Have a late-window backup ready. Jordan Addison (hamstring, questionable) is a flex if he plays.
• Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin, neck), both questionable. Both practiced in full Friday, which is a great sign, though Chase still has to clear the concussion protocol. If he's cleared, start him. One word of caution on both: Miami looks bad against the pass on paper, but it has held receivers about nine points per game below their usual output. Higgins is a WR2 this week, not a WR1, and if either one sits, Dohnte Meyers is a deep flex at best.
• Malik Nabers (knee). He practiced in full Friday and has no injury designation, so he's playing. Washington has given up the fourth-most points to receivers, and he's a WR2. Expect some volatility with Jameis Winston under center.
• Terry McLaurin (questionable) and Stefon Diggs (out). Both are dealing with hamstring injuries. If McLaurin sits too, Antonio Williams becomes a deep-league flex.
• Carnell Tate (back, questionable). Robert Saleh says he'll be good to go. Keep him in flex consideration.

Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. Disagree with a call? Good. Let us know.