Three tight ends own more than 30% of their team's targets, and two of them face defenses that have bled points to the position. Detroit-Arizona puts two starters in the best game of the week. Our Week 5 tight end calls.
Tight end is simple to explain and hard to get right. If your tight end owns a real share of his team's targets, you start him and stop thinking about it. If he doesn't, you're chasing touchdowns, and the matchup is the only edge you've got left. Every call below is built on that distinction.
Here's the short version. Start McBride, LaPorta, and Likely. Sit Kraft, Loveland, and Schultz. Let's jump right into it.
This covers the eleven Sunday afternoon games. Thursday night, London, Sunday night, and Monday night aren't included, and Kansas City and Carolina are on bye. Updated Saturday for Friday's injury reports.
| TE | Matchup | Tgt share | Opp pts allowed | Proj | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | ARI vs DET | 31.1% | 28.4 · 1st | 18.9 | Start |
| Brock Bowers | LV @ NE | 31.6% | 5.9 · 31st | 16.4 | Start |
| George Kittle | SF @ SEA | 21.6% | 11.0 · 18th | 13.6 | Start |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG @ WAS | 32.4% | 18.3 · 5th | 13.5 | Start |
| Sam LaPorta | DET @ ARI | 20.1% | 18.6 · 3rd | 13.3 | Start |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE @ NYJ | 20.2% | 10.2 · 23rd | 11.7 | Start |
| Tyler Warren | IND @ PIT | 22.0% | 9.9 · 24th | 11.6 | Start, lower the bar |
| Tucker Kraft | GB vs CHI | 16.0% | 6.2 · 30th | 11.3 | Sit |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN @ NO | 26.0% | 17.9 · 7th | 11.0 | Start |
| Juwan Johnson | NO vs MIN | 15.8% | 7.7 · 29th | 10.3 | Sit |
| Colston Loveland | CHI @ GB | 14.8% | 10.6 · 20th | 9.8 | Sit |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN @ MIA | 10.1% | 18.6 · 4th | 8.6 | Deep streamer |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU @ TEN | 18.6% | 10.3 · 22nd | 8.4 | Sit |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ vs CLE | 16.4% | 16.8 · 10th | 7.9 | Streamer |
Projections are ours, in full-PPR points with DraftKings scoring. "Opp pts allowed" is the fantasy points per game that defense has given up to tight ends, with 1st being the most generous.
01 · Start
Trey McBride (ARI vs DET). The best tight end play on the board, and it isn't particularly close. McBride has seen 10 or more targets every single week, and now he gets a Detroit defense that has given up more points to tight ends than anybody. Tight ends are scoring almost 14 more points per game against Detroit than they usually do, which makes it the most generous matchup on the slate at any position. Oh, and he's playing in the highest-total game of the week. Lock him in.
The number: 13.6. That's how many more points per game tight ends score against Detroit than their average. Biggest gap on the slate.
Sam LaPorta (DET @ ARI). The other side of the same game. Arizona has allowed the third-most points to tight ends, and Detroit carries the highest team total on the slate. LaPorta had a quiet Week 3 (four targets), then bounced right back with 13 targets and four red-zone looks in Week 4. He's a TE1 this week.
Isaiah Likely (NYG @ WAS). Likely owns the highest target share of any tight end on the slate at 32.4%, and he saw 12 targets last week. Washington gives up the most points per target to tight ends in the league. He was limited early in the week with knee and groin issues, but he practiced in full Friday and is expected to play. Consider him a top-five play at the position.
The number: 44%. His share of the Giants' targets in Week 4.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN @ NO). Thirteen targets and 27.9 points last week. That won't happen every week, but the reasons it happened just might stick around. Jefferson and Addison are both banged up, New Orleans has given up the seventh-most points to tight ends, and the Saints play fast. Start him.
Brock Bowers (LV @ NE). On matchup alone, this is a sit; New England has allowed the second-fewest points to tight ends. However, Bowers has seen 14 and 11 targets in his two games, and he practiced in full Thursday and Friday with no injury designation. Elite usage beats a bad matchup at this position. Start him.
George Kittle (SF @ SEA). Seattle is tough against the pass, but it's been about average against tight ends, and it struggles with the quick passing game the 49ers lean on. Kittle has played 85% and 91% of the snaps the last two weeks and leads every tight end on the slate in efficiency. Start him.
Start, but lower the bar: Fannin and Warren. Harold Fannin plays nearly every snap and owns 20% of the targets, but the Jets haven't given up much to tight ends, and the total sits at just 39.5. Tyler Warren's 22% target share keeps him in lineups. The problem is that Indianapolis gets him the ball on play-action and quick throws, and Pittsburgh shuts down both better than almost anybody. Both are low-end TE1s this week.
02 · Sit
Tucker Kraft (GB vs CHI). Chicago has given up the third-fewest points to tight ends, roughly 10 points per game below what those offenses usually score. What's more, Kraft hasn't produced anything against man coverage this season, and Chicago plays a lot of it. His four red-zone looks last week keep him in the conversation, but we'd rather have Fannin.
The number: 6.2 points per game allowed to TEs by Chicago. Third-fewest in the NFL.
Colston Loveland (CHI @ GB). Last week's nine targets were his best game of the year, and Tyson Bagent is expected to start at quarterback again, which doesn't help matters. His efficiency has been rough, and our trend model reads it as a real decline in role rather than bad luck. Hold him in dynasty. Just don't start him this week.
Dalton Schultz (HOU @ TEN). Fourteen targets in Week 2, then three and two. Tank Dell is out, but Collins is back, the total is the lowest on the slate, and Tennessee has held tight ends well below their usual numbers. You'd be chasing a touchdown.
Juwan Johnson (NO vs MIN). Minnesota is the best defense in football, and it's allowed the fourth-fewest points to tight ends. Shough is healthy, and Johnson's role is steady, but we'd only play him if your other option is an empty roster spot.
03 · Streamers
04 · Injury watch
Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. Disagree with a call? Good. Let us know.
