Monangai is out with turf toe, which hands the Bears backfield back to D'Andre Swift in one of the best running back matchups on the board. Plus new lead backs in Seattle and New York, and a three-way mess in L.A. Our Week 5 running back calls.
In view of the fact that running backs see more opportunities per game than any other skill position, the workload is the matchup. A great matchup does nothing for a back who plays a third of the snaps, and a tough one won't sink a back getting 25 touches. So every call below starts with one question: who is actually getting the ball?
This week, that question has a lot of new answers. Kyle Monangai has been ruled out with turf toe, which makes D'Andre Swift the lead back in Chicago. Zach Charbonnet is out in Seattle. Breece Hall is out for the Jets. Jordan Mason is on IR in Minnesota, Josh Jacobs is still out in Green Bay, and the Chargers split their backfield three ways last week.
Here's the short version. Start Swift, Emanuel Wilson, and Judkins. Sit Kamara, Hampton, and Pollard. Let's jump right into it.
This covers the eleven Sunday afternoon games. Thursday night, London, Sunday night, and Monday night aren't included, and Kansas City and Carolina are on bye. Updated Saturday for Friday's injury reports.
| RB | Matchup | W4 snaps | Opp pts allowed | Proj | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET @ ARI | 87% | 14.9 · 31st | 28.2 | Start |
| Chase Brown | CIN @ MIA | 79% | 27.0 · 5th | 20.2 | Start |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND @ PIT | 71% | 24.6 · 9th | 20.0 | Start |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN @ NO | 73% | 33.2 · 1st | 17.6 | Start |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF @ SEA | 74% | 21.2 · 15th | 17.6 | Start, lower the bar |
| Ashton Jeanty (Q) | LV @ NE | 67% | 20.9 · 18th | 17.3 | Start if active |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs IND | 97% | 22.9 · 10th | 15.5 | Start, lower the bar |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs CLE | 94% | 16.7 · 28th | 15.2 | Flex |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI vs DET | 46% | 21.7 · 14th | 15.1 | Flex |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG @ WAS | 64% | 16.1 · 29th | 13.9 | Flex |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE @ NYJ | 66% | 27.2 · 4th | 13.8 | Start |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs SF | 60% | 24.9 · 8th | 13.3 | Start |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI @ GB | 36% | 28.9 · 2nd | Up (was 11.8) | Start |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs HOU | 53% | 17.0 · 25th | 11.1 | Sit |
| Keaton Mitchell | LAC vs DEN | 37% | 25.8 · 7th | 10.8 | Deep flex |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (Q) | NE vs LV | 66% | 21.1 · 17th | 13.0 | Sit |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs DEN | 35% | 25.8 · 7th | 8.2 | Sit |
| Alvin Kamara (Q) | NO vs MIN | 38% | 14.2 · 32nd | 9.0 | Sit |
Projections are ours, in full-PPR points with DraftKings scoring. For questionable players, the number shown is the projection if he plays. Swift's Wednesday projection (11.8) assumed a split with Monangai, so treat it as a floor. "Opp pts allowed" is the fantasy points per game that defense has given up to running backs, catches included, with 1st being the most generous.
01 · Start
D'Andre Swift (CHI @ GB). This one changed overnight. Monangai has been ruled out with turf toe, and the injury is worse than the Bears first thought; he's in a walking boot and considered week-to-week. That hands the backfield right back to Swift, who practiced in full Friday and carries no injury designation. Before last week's benching, Swift handled 16 to 20 carries in every game with 57% to 69% of the snaps, and now the only back behind him is Roschon Johnson. What's more, the matchup is fantastic: once you account for schedule, Green Bay has been the most generous running back defense in football. Yes, the fumble last week was ugly. Look, we get it. But with no one left to take his work, this is a workhorse role in a plus spot. Fire him up as an RB1.
The number: 7.8. That's how many more points per game backs are scoring against Green Bay than they usually do. Most in the NFL.
Emanuel Wilson (SEA vs SF). With Charbonnet out and Jadarian Price on IR, Wilson is the lead back for the most run-heavy offense in football. Case in point: last week he played 60% of the snaps, handled 21 carries and four targets, and put up 27 points. George Holani, the change-of-pace back, is questionable with rib and knee injuries, which could push even more work Wilson's way. San Francisco looks respectable against the run on paper, but backs have been scoring well above their usual numbers against them. Start him as an RB2, and don't overthink it.
Quinshon Judkins (CLE @ NYJ). Plenty of managers will see the 39.5 total and look elsewhere. Don't be one of them. Judkins played 66% of the snaps last week with 17 carries, 7 targets, and 5 red-zone opportunities, and the Jets have given up the fourth-most points to running backs. He's scored just once on more than three expected touchdowns. That red-zone role tells us more are coming.
The number: 5 red-zone opportunities in Week 4. That's a workhorse role, plain and simple.
Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN @ NO). With Mason on IR, Jones has played 73% or more of the snaps three weeks running. New Orleans has given up more fantasy points to running backs than any defense in the league, and the Saints play at the fastest pace in football. He's an RB1 this week.
Chase Brown (CIN @ MIA). Brown saw 11 targets last week. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both practiced in full Friday, so some of those short throws will likely go back to the receivers, but Miami has allowed the fifth-most points to backs and Cincinnati is a 6.5-point favorite. Lock him in.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET @ ARI). The one time we're ignoring the matchup entirely. Arizona has been the toughest running back defense in football relative to schedule. Nevertheless, Gibbs is averaging 30 points per game, in a game where Detroit's team total is 30. Workload beats matchup.
Start, but lower the bar: McCaffrey and Warren. Seattle has the best run defense in the league by efficiency, and Christian McCaffrey takes our biggest matchup downgrade of any back on the slate. He's seen at least four targets every week, so the floor is fine. Expect something closer to 17 points than 22. Jaylen Warren, meanwhile, played 90% and 97% of the snaps the last two weeks. Rico Dowdle is questionable with his toe after being limited all week; if he plays, Mike McCarthy wants a "one-two punch," and if he doesn't, Warren is the bell cow again. Either way, he's an RB2.
02 · Sit
Alvin Kamara (NO vs MIN). Kamara is questionable with a back injury, and even if he plays, this is about as bad as it gets. Minnesota has allowed the fewest points to running backs in the league, and Kamara played just 38% of the snaps last week. Sit him.
The number: 14.2 points per game allowed to RBs by Minnesota. Fewest in the NFL.
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DEN). This one is about role, not matchup. The Chargers split their backfield almost perfectly three ways last week: Keaton Mitchell 26 snaps, Kimani Vidal 25, Hampton 25. It's also the second straight week his share has shrunk. If you absolutely have to start a Charger, it's Mitchell, who led the group in touches and owns the receiving work.
Tony Pollard (TEN vs HOU). Tennessee has the lowest implied total on the slate at 15 points. Houston has held backs well below their usual numbers, and most of Pollard's targets come on short throws outside, which Houston defends as well as anybody. He popped up on the injury report with a foot issue early in the week, but the bigger problem is the spot. Easy sit.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE vs LV). He's questionable with a knee injury, and the Raiders have held backs below their usual output. If he sits, TreVeyon Henderson leads the backfield, but he hasn't done much with his touches, so temper expectations there too.
03 · Close calls
04 · Injury watch
Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. Disagree with a call? Good. Let us know.
