Week 5 QB Start/Sit

Here's the short version. Start Brissett, and stream Rodgers if you need a body. Sit Shough, Darnold, and Cousins. Now, let's jump right into it.

A quick note on scope: this covers the eleven Sunday afternoon games. Thursday night, London, Sunday night, and Monday night aren't included, and Kansas City and Carolina are on bye. Updated Saturday for Friday's injury reports.

Projections are ours, in full-PPR points with DraftKings scoring. "Opp pts allowed" is the fantasy points per game that defense has given up to quarterbacks so far, with 1st being the most generous.

01 · Start

Start 'em.

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs DET). Hands down our favorite quarterback call of the week. Detroit has given up 28.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most in football. What's more, this isn't a soft-schedule mirage: the offenses Detroit has faced are scoring roughly eight more points against them than they do against everybody else. Arizona is a 5.5-point home underdog in the highest-total game on the slate (54.5), and Detroit stacks the box at the second-highest rate in the league, which should force the ball into the hands of McBride and Michael Wilson. Detroit will also be without safety Brian Branch and corner Rock Ya-Sin. Look, we get it. Brissett isn't the sexiest name on your roster. But volume in a shootout covers a lot of warts. Fire him up.

The number: 28.4 fantasy points per game allowed to QBs by Detroit. Most in the NFL.

Aaron Rodgers (PIT vs IND). If you lost your quarterback to a bye, this is your guy. Pittsburgh is throwing more than any offense in football relative to the game situation, and it has been that way for a month. Rodgers has posted 23.7 and 24.0 points the last two weeks, and Indianapolis has allowed the sixth-most points to quarterbacks. It doesn't take a genius to see why we like this one. Pull the trigger.

The number: +8.1%. Pittsburgh's pass rate over expected, the highest in the league.

Jared Goff (DET @ ARI). The obvious one, but it's worth spelling out why. Detroit carries the highest implied total on the slate (30 points), and Arizona ranks 31st against the pass. Goff is averaging 23 points per game, and our model gives him close to a 60% chance at 20-plus. Lock him in.

Jayden Daniels (WAS vs NYG). Daniels practiced in full Wednesday, and Dan Quinn expects him to start. The Giants have been right around league average against quarterbacks, so this isn't a passing smash spot; it's a rushing one. New York has the worst run defense in the NFL, and Daniels is averaging six carries per game. Stefon Diggs has been ruled out and Terry McLaurin is questionable, both with hamstring injuries, which caps the ceiling. It doesn't touch the floor.

Drake Maye (NE vs LV). Maye is running the ball nearly six times per game, and his slow start looks a lot more like bad luck than a bad role. Las Vegas has been about average against the position. Start him with confidence.

Start, but lower the bar: Purdy and Burrow. You're starting Brock Purdy regardless. Even still, Seattle has allowed the second-fewest points to quarterbacks in the league and plays a ton of two-high safety coverage, which the 49ers have struggled against. Think 19 points, not 25. In the same vein, Joe Burrow's matchup looks great on paper, but Miami has held quarterbacks below their usual output. The good news: Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both practiced in full Friday. Both are still questionable, and Chase has to clear the concussion protocol, but if both play, Burrow has his full arsenal back. He's a solid QB1 if they're active, a mid-range one if they aren't.

02 · Sit

Sit 'em.

Tyler Shough (NO vs MIN). The worst quarterback matchup on the board. His hand injury is to his non-throwing hand and he practiced in full Thursday and Friday, so he'll play. That isn't the problem. Minnesota is 4-0 with the best defense in football; it blitzes more than any team in the league and has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in the league. The Saints play at the fastest pace in the NFL, which is the only thing keeping his projection respectable. If you have another option, use it.

The number: 11.5 points per game allowed to QBs by Minnesota. Fewest in the NFL.

Sam Darnold (SEA vs SF). The projection says he's fine. We aren't buying it. Seattle throws less than any team in football relative to the game situation, and Darnold's touchdowns have been running well ahead of what his volume supports. That evens out, and usually sooner rather than later. He's a fine superflex start, but in one-quarterback leagues, we'd rather have Rodgers.

Kirk Cousins (LV @ NE). Once you adjust for who they've played, New England has been the toughest quarterback matchup in the league. The Raiders have also been scoring more than their underlying play deserves, which tends to drift back. Cousins has averaged 21.5 points per game. We'd bet the under.

Justin Herbert and Bo Nix (LAC-DEN). Skip both sides of this one. The Chargers are 0-4 with one of the worst offenses in football, and Denver blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league. Nix, meanwhile, draws a Chargers defense that has held quarterbacks well below their usual output, and he's been loose with the football. Herbert is a buy-low in dynasty. Just not this week.

03 · Close calls

The close calls.

These are the ones that come out as basically coin flips in our simulations. Here's how we'd break the tie.

• Rodgers over Darnold. Dead even in the sims. Pittsburgh's pass rate is the difference.
• Maye over Love. Also even in the sims. Maye's legs give him a floor Love doesn't have, and Chicago has allowed the 23rd-most points to quarterbacks.
• Brissett over Cousins. Not that close, really. The most generous quarterback defense in football versus, after adjusting for schedule, the toughest one.
• Murray over Nix. Kyler hasn't been good this year, there's no debating that. But the Saints play at the fastest pace in the league, and Minnesota's deep shots line up with exactly what New Orleans gives up. Keep an eye on Jefferson and Addison.
• Watson over Stroud. Our lowest-confidence call on the board. Both defenses have been stingy, so we're leaning on Watson's 7.8 carries per game.

04 · Injury watch

Injury watch.

• Caleb Williams (questionable). He returned to a limited practice Friday, but he's still expected to sit for a third straight week, which means Tyson Bagent starts. Chicago plays fast, and Green Bay has given up more to quarterbacks than its opponents usually score, which makes Bagent a usable superflex QB2. If Williams surprises and plays, he's a fringe QB1 in this spot.
• Jaxson Dart (IR). Jameis Winston starts. Washington blitzes a lot, and New York has been the worst offense in football against the blitz. Then again, Washington has also been the most generous quarterback defense in the league after adjusting for schedule. Volatile superflex QB2.
• Bengals receivers. Chase and Higgins both practiced in full Friday but remain questionable, and Chase still has to clear the protocol. Cincinnati kicks off at 1 p.m. ET, so you'll know before your late-window decisions.
• Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (questionable). Jefferson practiced Friday and says the plan is to play. That's good news for Kyler Murray.

Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. Disagree with a call? Good. Let us know.