Revisiting the 2025 SuperFlex rookie class.

01 · The top ten

One season in. The board moved.

While we work hard to give the best film-adjusted probabilities in the industry, it's easy to see why NFL tape is more predictive. Now that we've seen these guys in the league for a full season, we can much more confidently assign adjusted hit rates. That's the column we're leaning on for the rest of this piece. Base rate is generic by construction; composite is the blend. The adjusted number is where the rookie year actually shows up in the math.

The post-Y1 adjusted 3+ rate is a different conversation than the one we were having last May. The rookies who hit are now sitting on a year of confirmation, and the model has rewarded them. The rookies who didn't are sitting on a year of evidence, and the model has docked them. That's an oversimplification, but the gist is this: we now have more information to work with, and we can confidently give you an edge on this class.

Three tight ends in the top three. We said in the methodology piece that round-three TE was the highest-EV scouting target in the rookie draft. The 2025 class shoved that finding directly into our face. Harold Fannin Jr. was perhaps the best EV value in the class — returning an elite TE1 finish as a 21-year-old rookie. Warren and Loveland were in the late-1st/early-2nd range of ADP last year, and they were still awesome values.

The other thing worth flagging here is the QB pool. Jaxson Dart at 1.12 came in as the consensus QB2 in the class, and quietly finished QB14 on a roster that's about to get a Nabers + Likely + O-line upgrade (not to mention Malachi Fields and Darnell Mooney). The model has him at 55% adjusted 3+, which is QB1 territory for this class behind only Mendoza in 2026's group. The two are assuredly in the same tier long term. Mendoza is a higher-floor, lower-ceiling type bet compared to Dart, who carries more rushing upside but also more injury risk.

02 · Best values

Where the room was sleeping.

This is the section that earns its keep. We took the original ADP rank (1–48) and compared it to where each player now ranks by adjusted 3+. Positive value means the room paid less than the model now says he's worth.

Harold Fannin. As we said earlier, the model loved Fannin even before we saw him on an NFL field. Not many people expected him to displace David Njoku like he did, despite his fantastic CFB production. The question marks on him going in were entirely about pedigree — small school, mid-round capital, second TE on the Browns depth chart. The film said he was a player. Now we've got the numbers, and the only remaining hindrance is QB play. That's a buy signal, not a sell one.

If anyone in your league is shopping him as a “small-school anomaly,” the model thinks they’re handing you a top-five TE.— HIVE Hit-Rate Desk

Kyle Monangai at 4.10 is the second-biggest value in the class, and the most ignored one. Looked solid as a rookie in a split with Swift. The Swift contract situation is the kind of thing that resolves itself a year from now, and Monangai is the depth chart winner if it does. Late-fourth-round capital for a 20% adjusted 3+ rate is the kind of math that wins leagues quietly. An affordable upside bet at a scarce position.

Tyler Shough at 3.02 deserves a longer look than he's getting. Promising production in the snaps he got as a rookie. Tyson plus Olave plus the Saints offensive structure puts him in the QB-streamer-becomes-QB1 conversation faster than people realize. He's not a contender for the top of the class, due mostly to the steep hit threshold for the QB position — top-12 fantasy finishes aren't easy to accomplish, especially 3+ in one career. Even still, he's one of the biggest risers in terms of value after year one.

The TE pair below Fannin — Loveland and Warren — are values in a different sense. Both went in round one and round two, both have already produced, and the model now ranks them 1 and 2 in the entire class by adjusted 3+. They were good picks. They're still good picks. If a manager in your league is willing to part with either, you should jump on it.

03 · Biggest busts

Where the room overpaid.

Same exercise, opposite direction.

Kaleb Johnson is the headline. ADP 1.11, post-Y1 adjusted rank 35 out of 48. RB113. There isn't a more brutal collapse on the board, and it's the cleanest example of the room buying NFL draft capital and third-round Pittsburgh narrative without checking what the tape and data were actually saying. The model was bearish on him from the jump — pre-Y1 it had him below the base rate for a 1.11. The rookie year cratered him further. Additionally, second-tier RBs in the late-1st/early-2nd range routinely underperform expectations.

The takeaway here isn’t “we knew” — it’s that the room consistently overpays for the Steelers-RB profile.— HIVE Hit-Rate Desk

RJ Harvey at 1.07 is the smaller version of the same problem. Top-eight rookie capital for a back whose profile screamed complementary/rotational back rather than every-down workhorse. He came close to a Y1 hit but the long-term picture is cloudy with Dobbins and Coleman in the picture. He was also quite inefficient when given the opportunity to be the guy last year. The model's 15% adjusted is a real walk-back from where the consensus had him.

Cameron Ward at 1.04 and Travis Hunter at 1.06 are the marquee QB and WR busts of round one. Ward finished QB22 and now sits at 20% adjusted 3+. Hunter finished WR97 and the talk of moving him to more defensive snaps in year two has us thinking the fantasy ceiling is already capped. Both were drafted by the room as elite NFL talents. Both were drafted by the model at significantly lower projected hit rates than their slots implied. This isn't to say either of them are dead. Especially not Ward — there's real reason for optimism for him in Tennessee this year. Hunter is still an awesome talent if the Jags ever decide to commit him to the WR position.

The one nuance worth flagging: Omarion Hampton at 1.02 is technically a bust by the value math (−7 vs. ADP), but the 52% adjusted is still the ninth-best in the class, and the Y1 number is heavily injury-tinted. We're not selling him. The model isn't selling him either. He's a "bust" only in the sense that the room paid 1.02 for him and the rookie season didn't deliver.

The round-two pile — Jaydon Blue, Tre Harris, Jack Bech, Kyle Williams — is the same 2.07–2.12 dead zone we wrote about in the methodology piece. Five of the six 2.07–2.12 picks from the 2025 class now sit in the bottom third of the model. The pattern holds up, yet again.

04 · Accountability

Checking our own homework.

The most useful thing we can do twelve months in is check our own homework. Where did the model lean against consensus — and was it right to lean?

The bearish column is the one we'd defend hardest. Four of the six biggest fades the model planted have already become consensus busts. Cameron Ward and Travis Hunter were specifically the names where draft capital was doing all the lifting in the room's pricing — both got faded by the model going in, both ended up where the model said they'd end up.

While Mason Taylor was somewhat promising as a rookie, the Sadiq pick gutted his long-term role, and his value is likely completely nuked going forward.

05 · Open questions

Where the model might still be wrong.

This is the section we owe you. The model isn't a crystal ball — it's a directional read with the confidence of historical data to back it up. There are spots in the 2025 class where the post-Y1 number feels generous or harsh in ways that may not survive year two.

Calls the model is still bullish on, but Y1 didn't deliver

• Omarion Hampton (52% adj). Injury-tinted Y1. The Chargers backfield is a McDaniel offense question mark. If he comes back healthy and the work is there, the model is right. If McDaniel gets exotic with the touch distribution, we'll be writing this section about Hampton again next year.
• TreVeyon Henderson (50% adj). The playoff usage was strange — Stevenson out-snapped him in spots that should've belonged to the rookie. Spike-week upside is real but the floor is shakier than the model number reads.
• Quinshon Judkins (50% adj). Should be the Browns workhorse long-term. The injury that prevented a Y1 hit shouldn't structurally change the projection. We're keeping him here, but if year two shows a committee split with Sampson, we revisit.

Calls the model might be too low on

• Bhayshul Tuten (18% adj). The model still has him in the round-three RB dead zone bucket. The ETN departure changes the math. If the room reprices him this summer, the model will follow — but right now there's a gap.
• Tory Horton (10% adj). Multiple games of legitimate upside before the injury. The 10% looks light. If Seattle's WR room shakes out in his favor, this is the kind of sneaky buy that doesn't stay sneaky for long.

We're not going to pretend the model has every Y2 outcome locked in — we don't, and neither does anyone else. What it does have is twelve years of comp data that says "this is how rookies in this profile have historically played out from here." That's the lens. Y1 is one data point. Y2 is the next.

06 · The full board

The full board lives on the site.

This is the surface read. The full 48-player board with every adjusted rate, the per-position breakdowns, the year-two outlook, and the buy-low/sell-high tags for every name on it — that lives behind the Hive Mind.

Free for the first 1,000 members. Original members get one month on us when the paid tier launches, plus first access to every new tool we drop. We're not at 1,000 yet.

→ See the full 2025 board on hivefantasy.com